Loading ...Hope for the best, but (at least mentally) prepare for the worst…
I think Gary Savage’s analysis makes sense. At this point the only pivot that matters in $gold is the August 18th high at $2024. Unless that is taken out quickly, the bears are in total control.
Cycle analysis tells us this last daily cycle in $gold is pretty much guaranteed to make a low below the $1874 low we hit on August 12th. Given how stretched gold is above the 50 WMA, and based on history, I am expecting a very sharp drop in $gold within the next 4 weeks (based on a 30 week intermediate cycle).
Even in my most bullish case under cycle theory, I would expect silver to also make a sharp drop–I am hoping that $23 would be the worst that it would see, and that’s what I am mentally preparing for. (Of course, based on history, it’s possible that it could drop even lower, perhaps all the way down to the 50 WMA which is currently rising but only at $18.73 and is only expected to rise to the mid $19s in 4 weeks.)
I am holding through this, but I can see how this type of action could really shake a new long out of their position. These current price levels are not what I would consider a low risk entry point based on history and probability.
That makes me nervous to read that I am on the same side of the trade as Gary Savage
His ego impairs his judgment, but none of the cycle analysis with respect to gold as of right now is really open to interpretation. I would say his analysis currently is pretty much textbook.
I used to trade in and out for years and never got anywhere. This market seems to be run by an algorithm designed to chew people who trade in and out of it to death. It really does seem to work best to simply let most positions ride out the changes. We’ll see, but, so far, so good.
He was horrifyingly bad in 2011 & cost many of his subs to lose their life savings by his prideful and reckless calls. I was there, I saw it.
understood. I was actually a sub of his back then. He stubbornly refused to acknowledge the gold bear market until it was far too late. He refused to use stops too, which was insane, again assuming the bull would rescue any bad entries.
I’ll give him a pass on calling a silver top because almost no one calls tops perfectly.
Yes, the LEAP calls, NUGT (3x at the time) etc was insane
Agree