I am about to be wrong…
I know, I know, there is a first time for everything.
A few months back, I speculated that the $hui:gdx ratio was going to make a big jump upwards before September 2020 based on the structure of the weekly Ichimoku cloud. Well, we are running out of time, and it looks like if it doesn’t get a move on this week and next, we are going to pass right through the cloud. I would anticipate in a proper bull market, $hui should outperform GDX, which includes less risky streamers. So while the mild uptrend in the ratio that began a year ago should likely continue, we may have to wait for the upwards explosion, perhaps later this year or sometime in 2021. Who knows though, maybe this week and next week the $hui will shock the world. I can dream can’t I?
[They say that in a bull market, surprises come to the upside. I think the probabilities are stacked against it, but it is possible the miners make a higher high–and possibly a much higher high–over the course of the next 1-2 weeks before beginning their intermediate cycle correction. I certainly wouldn’t place any new bets on that, but I would put the probability at more than zero that it could happen.]
The Empire might be running a short the miners long the metals pair right now.
$HUI is so close to breaking out vs $gold. It could be then when it finally does so, it will catch everyone off guard. At least from a contrarian standpoint, the miners are ripe to pull off something spectacular–for forcing people to buy/chase at exactly the wrong time in all likelihood.
For no particular reason other than to have some cash for expenses and because of too much enthusiasm I sold a little good stock this morning.
Because of my observations in keeping with what you have written — quoted metals prices higher that PM prices — I sold a little of a great one just now for more cash just in case. Also I try to enforce a rule for myself that if I’m thinking of selling these things to try to sell something since I tend to be too enthusiastic about holding them. (I am still net way way long PM stocks though.)
Amen, Nautilus!
These upside surprises have to come now!
Can’t wait to see HUI in the 630s, its all time high!!!
GL
I don’t think there is much difference in the $HUI and the GDX
GDX
https://www.vaneck.com/etf/equity/gdx/holdings/
HUI
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HUI_Gold_Index
GDX:GLD is the ratio to watch IMO
It comes down mostly to the miners outperforming streamers. Streamers like WPM have crushed miners for 4 years. The silver miners are due for some payback.
Correct. The GDX:GLD put in a shooting star reversal on July 27.