Loading ...Peak Cycle- Actually peak everything- A secular turn is upon us
Twitter: @BurtCoons
This heated discourse on MMT is very significant and instructive IMO. Why instructive? Not for its content, but as a sign of where we are in the cycle.We are at peak cycle. An inflection point is upon us. Hopefully many of us read Ray Dalio’s article last year on decade end cycle changes. That’s where we are, at the turn…. in everything.
Please keep returning to this below quote throughout this message:
The name Ellen Brown is presented to add credibility to the MMT proposition. The significance is simply she has finally been co-opted as almost everyone else. Just a late hold out.
Think of the term “Helicopter money”. Today it’s actually being used as a serious policy proposal, YES EVEN ON THIS SITE!. Where did this term come from? It was made up my Milton Friedman as a joke! It’s use was to drive home the ridiculousness of free money. NOT as any possible policy proposal. Yes indeed everything America now believes is false.
But we know the average American has no financial knowledge and is easily bamboozled with fraudulent financial arguments. But the absolute extreme of how far this can go has to be recognized when the owner of a gold bug site goes full tilt supporting thin air money printing.
Indeed I understand the pointing out of this reality may no longer be welcome since the sea is now swarming with newly frocked modern Keynesians. But I can’t help myself as my knowledge of economic history extends beyond 1940 and there is a well worn path of where this ends up. It’s not pretty.
Great stuff Plunger. Who is this mysterious gold bug owner are you referring to? Oh my!
YOU continue to point to the problem Plunger
BUT YOU offer NO solution other than Liquidate the people.
let them eat Shit is basically what you are proposing.
That is NOT a solution
MMT is a possible solution ..and NO it is NOT the status quo…it is the antithesis of the status quo
The Government finally controls the money supply NOT the FED…it is the END of the FED
What would YOu propose as a solution ?
If you are not part of the solution you are part of the problem.
Are you going around to all your loved ones and friends and co workers says sorry bud…you blew it
The Gov. should not bail out you company…you should lose your job AND your pension and You’re home…and get in line for soup.
You played the funny money game for too long and now you re on the outside looking in !
ha ha..but I am smart and I saw it coming and I have Gold and I will prosper at YOUR expense…because the funny money game is over !
This is Bullshit of the highest order and to say I am a sure sign that it’s end game because i am willing to look for a solution instead of rehashing
the problem .
The Gold standard ended 50 years ago…and it is NOT coming back.
How has your life and the lives of your contemporaries and that of most of western societies played out in those 50 years ?
Prosperity as far as the eye can see Plunger…for your complete lifetime ..nothing but growth and prosperity…BECAUSE of all the money printing not in spite of it.
IF we were on the gold standard for these 50 years would life have been this good …would growth have been sustained >?
NO $^&(ing WAY JOSE
Yes Gold is a good buy and hold…It goes up In both inflation and in deflation.
So do home prices and Stocks apparently .
I am into Gold..it has been very good to me ( not Gold Stocks but Gold)
You are compelled to answer the above question…what are you telling you friends and relatives …what is your advice to them ?
Suck it up you screwed up ?
sheesh
Of course starting a post with YOU in caps is not too conducive to civil discourse, not taking this personally just sticking to the issue
OK since it has been requested I will respond
1. MMT is NEVER a solution it can only be a stop gap measure which leads to the destruction of the currency. Again simply a redistribution of wealth.
2. The solution is liquidate (of course provide some form of intermediate assistance for individuals) As Mr Mellon advised the industries won’t go away, but more competent people, with capital, will come to reorganize the industry IAW market demand. Airlines are a perfect example of this. The govt is going to prop it us when the demand will not be there. All this does is destroy capital, which hurst’s all of us.
3. MMT is not the end of the FED. The FED ends probably when they buy up all of the insolvent corp debt and it defaults. That’s as good a guess as any. Another way to view this is capital destruction. It’s what the Soviet Union did. When you destroy capital eventually the system collapses.
4.Regarding the point of the government not bailing out my company… This demands a bit of detail:
A. I should lose my job: That’s in the works actually they are getting rid of me by August- Check.
B. I should lose my pension… Check That already happened in the last bankruptcy shit show. Never got it back. Now time for SS #2. BTW management made off with their own Golden parachutes just prior to the BK. This time around the CEO skimmed off $150m+ over the last 5 years, doesn’t need a G. P.
C. Get in line for soup: Actually about 6 months ago Smith’s, my local grocer, put multiple pallets of Cambells Soup out front as a loss leader clearance item for 99 cents a can.
I bought an entire pallet of it and stored it away. Cheap insurance I figured. So no the line for soup will be in my kitchen.
5. Played funny money too long now you’re screwed: Well, nothing like suffering through one of lifes object lessons to wake one up and be the catalyst to start thinking for oneself. Every individual would be better for it.
6. The gold standard ended 50 years ago and is not coming back: Are you so sure? I would recommend opening your mind to this, since these threads were begun claiming to want to have an open mind. One could start with John Butler’s book “The Golden Revolution”. My view is that by the time the MMT stuff
runs it’s course the people will be sick of “an expandable currency” and want honest money. Plenty of historical precedent to be able to have this view.
7. If we were on the gold standard for these 50 years would life have been this good?.. WOW… Ok we are now getting to the heart of the matter I suppose. This now is a personal critique, but clearly this statement does reveal ignorance of economic history. Back when we were on a classic gold standard over the
second half of the 19th century economic growth far exceeded what we have witnessed in the past 50 years as you say. Over the past 10 years when we have been ruled by radical FED policies economic growth has averaged 1.9%. That incidentally is the same as the decade of the 1930’s, Yeah that 1930’s
known as the Great Depression. Furthermore, has the thought ever occurred that all of this “phenomenal” growth we have experience while on the Phd monetary standard could be illusory? Spoiler alert: we are in the process of finding that out.
8. No houses and stocks do not go up in a deflation.
So I was compelled to answer these questions as is stated. I find it amazing actually that these answers even need to be stated..
I asked what you would tell your friends and relatives who will suffer NOW if something like MMT is not provided now ?
If it IS provided you can tell them ok time to prepare for the inevitable
There is still TIME
With your solution there is NO time
As far as personal ..of course its personal
You are ridiculing my position as a proprietor of a Gold Site who thinks MMT is a good idea.
I take that as personal
i have been your strongest supporter through all your work on the PBC as you know .
So it is surprising you ridicue my position which is ..lets give this a try…there are no other good options !
And …it just might work.
Like pedro just said MMT is the Treasury and Congress taking back control of the money supply for better or for worse..
Not personal, however the irony of it all is not lost. Whatever happened to the American ideal (includes Canada) of rugged individualism?
Agree with you, Plunger. MMT sounds like “it’s different this time” It also sounds like Marxian Monetary Theory. I think they tried that in the Soviet Union and we know how that turned out. Thanks for your post.
Eh Tu North
🙂
Bottom line ..if we are already at End game…The Game is Over ..the players have left the field then MMT cant make things worse..because its OVER
BUT if maybe there is Over time maybe just maybe it can keep the game going.
And WHO in his right mind doesnt want that ?
Just trying to be realistic. 🙂
“Helen Brown?” Do you mean Ellen Brown, the well known advocate for the North Dakota public bank?
As for MMT, I think that essentially requires Treasury to resume printing currency – DIRECTLY. As in US Notes, not Federsal Reserve Notes. Maybe there’s a hocus pocus version of MMT that can skirt that. In that sense, taking Fed out of the loop (treasuries to Fed, currency from Fed) that might be a good thing. Except … that places money supply in the hands of Congress. Worst of all worlds.
Oh … and there are few things in this world that I would condemn more vigorously than MMT.
That’s only for the intellectually deluded denizens of a fantasy land. Folks who can’t work out the math. Or, in a more frightening sense, who can’t figure out the political angle. Put’s the ball squarely in AOC’s court.
Yea, sorry Elllen Brown
We have kicked this can down the road about as far as it can go, possibly. Everyone should prepare personally for the proverbial rainy day. If you have not done so, then you are just taking your chances and hoping that the clowns that got us into this mess can get us out of it. I am not talking about Covid-19. I am talking about the real problem, unpayable DEBT.
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
Ludwig von Mises, Human Action [1949]
I’ll take door 2…later is always better than sooner
🙂
Got gold. Only gold soon to be had will be in the ground.
The fat lady is warming up.
The Fat Lady Died of Covid while warming up 🙂
She never got to sing.
She has been warming up for decades.
Go back and look at all the articles claiming the system is unsustainable
since the 90s at least.
… And in books back in the late 70s. Anyone remember this malarkey from 1979:
Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression
by Douglas Casey
https://www.amazon.com/Crisis-Investing-Opportunities-Profits-Depression/dp/0936906006
It offered irrefutable evidence that a major crash of the US economy was inevitable (41 years ago).
All this doom blather today makes me want to get back to trading & BUY lots of SPY tomorrow.
When you get down to the essence of it, the MMT debate is all about MONEY ILLUSION … that more currency units means more prosperity. We have that already, with QE. MMT is also about shifting control of the number of currency units out there, from the banking sector (loans) to the political sphere (promises).
And recognize that the public sector only produces what it does, by first commandeering cash from the private sector (via taxes) and from the unborn (via bonds). So shifting control of money supply will likely, IMO, accelerate the demise of a currency because the political sector is SO MYOPIC … their time horizon is two years. Beyond that, they don’t look because they don’t care.
Second … wealth depends on productivity … and that comes from the private sector .. and that productivity is virtually unheard of in the public sector and notably so in more heavily socialist nations. MMT shifts the power to arbitrary politicians who can now fund all THEIR dreams until EVERYONE’S hopes go up in smoke. MMT removes market discipline, what little remains. Doubling the money supply on a deserted island (by having more precious token shells spent into existence) won’t bring any more fish, coconuts or fresh water to the dinner table. Spending under MMT will be steered from private sector to public, so even more is wasted on whatever the lobbyists want.
A++ Pedro
Just to relay how crazy things are getting, I know a guys who just got laid off from his manufacturing job. He says, due to the unemployment provisions in the stimulus package, he’ll be making more money laid off than he would if he was still working. Not kidding.
By the way, the 50 year anniversary of the totally fiat US dollar is August 2021. It’s had a nice long run. Longer than most if you think about it.
MMT guaranteed long term pain and increasing separation class’ – may well result in arguments that brought Venezuela to it’s current state (note the agendas of the recent US democrat debate stage) – this is not just dem’s, it applies to elements in both parties, the dem’s just vocalize it – Bernie Sanders’ vision is the purest example.
Bankruptcy guaranteed short term pain but also p o s s i b l e long term real growth (not guaranteed).
Bankruptcies (current banking system failure) is long over due and my preferred solution, that’s what I’d tell my friends and neighbors Fully but I’ve been talking to deaf ears for so long it makes no difference – and I’m not gleeful that I’m stacking and they are not but I do consider that I’m aware of an inevitability (MMT will fail) and they are not (“WTF is MMT?”). Great post Pedro BTW.
Here’s where this is going…
https://www.wsj.com/video/zimbabwes-100-trillion-dollar-note-gains-in-value/E32B371E-2016-4BAC-9FDA-5CBE5DB7FE7C.html