Loading ...Why is the most important Number.. Not even being reported ? !
First off I want to say My initial Optimism that this virus would be contained has been beaten back.
I was originally encouraged by the numbers out of China and South Korea and Japan and Hong Kong and Taiwan.
It may be difficult to trust Chinese Numbers but those other 4 countries are all much more transparent.
However then there is Italy / Europe which is not going so well
And Now USA seems to be following that model.
Having said all this …I have a bone to pick
We get the numbers of Positive tests and we get the numbers of Dead BUT we do not get the most important number of all IMHO
The number of Tests given AND the number of Negative tests !
Is this NOT important ?
All of a sudden there is a spike in the USA numbers….Of course rational thinkers realize the reason is there are way more ( exponentially more) tests being done.
Now I am fortunate to have perhaps the only example of data for Number of Tests being conducted in a given area
The Area is my home province…btw…the best place on earth to live IMHO…..Ontario Canada
With a Population of 13.5 million
We have a website run by the Ministry of Health which has a page keeping track of not only positive cases but also total tests and total negative cases.
https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus#section-0
WHY are all the other tracking sites seemingly NOT INTERESTED IN KEEPING TRACK OF THE NUMBER OF TESTS ?
This seems to be a gross mistake….a Huge Omission !
Lets have a look at the Ontario Net numbers and round them out for analysis of what they mean.
Negative…………. ……….13718
(Currently under investigation… 5475)
Confirmed positive…………… 311
Resolved……………………… 5
Deceased……………………… 2
(Total number of patients approved for COVID-19 testing to date 19511 )
We will ignore the tests under investigation. which have not had results yet.
Add the positive tests to the negative tests and we have the total number of tests with a resullt
Just over 14,000
About 13,700 are Negative
About… 300 are Positive
Thats just over 2% Positive
Thats 98% Negative !
Now it helps to know Just Who have been tested ( ie what criteria has been used to even permit a test .
Initially ( until about a week ago ) There was a preamble which said.( paraphrasing)
Out of a abundance of caution we will test patients presenting with symptoms of Covid-19 but we expect only a small number will be positive because the symptoms are very similar to the seasonal flu)
Now this qualification has been removed
I assume they are only testing high risk individuals with symptoms.
IE Anyone recently returned from out of the Country with symptoms and or their closest contacts.
The page also attempts to qualify where the patients were assumed to have contracted the virus and where they are recovering.
About a dozen of them are in the hospital
The rest ( aboout 300) are self Isolating.
The reason there are only 5 recovered ( the first 5 ) is the first 5 were seen weeks before ther next wave began and the were retested…now with this next wave I suspect they have not yet retested them.
All the patients that I monitor are said to have been travelling or close contacts of patients confirmed positive via travel
I have not noticed any “community transmission” cases as of yet…but perhaps thats because they are not testing for these ?
So in summary
14,000 high risk patients have been tested and 2% have Covid-19 in Ontario
WHICH MEANS 98% PRESUMABLY HAVE THE FLU OR SOME OTHER SYMPTOM CAUSING LITTLE BEAST ( BACTERIAL ?)
Wouldn’t YOU like to know how many in YOUR Country have been tested ?
For Instance the number of Positive cases in USA doubled in One day
Sounds ominous but what if the number of tests quadrupled or went up 10X ?
How many negative cases were there during this time frame ?
Maybe the 6000 new cases discovered in New York ( up 223%)
were accompanied by 100,000 new negatives ?
Who knows ? I don’t and YOU don’t but the Public Health Authorities likely do.
Contact your PH department in your area and ask that they document how many tests they are doing .
AND what the protocol is for approval of these tests.
I understand they may be too overloaded to respond but it sure would be nice to know.
One last number that possibly could make a few less people so frightened.
2 out of 14,000 people at high risk have died.
.0001%
Statistics can be misleading …in Both directions
But the more information we have the more meaningful they become.
………………..
“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
Benjamin Disraeli
“Statistically speaking, there is a 65 percent chance that the love of your life is having an affair. Be very suspicious.”
Scott Dickers
A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.”
Joseph Stalin
“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
Mark Twain
Fully, how many ventilators does your area have. This may be the only number that actually matters. When this conversation started a long while ago we consistently pointed to this fact. Who cares what diseases you test for. When a ton of people come in and can’t breathe, they die. Perhaps a lot of this could have been skewed in humanities favor had we more medical supplies and devices. Sadly, we are ill equipped. But tell you what, hook up the nitrous for me and I won’ much care anymore 🙂
Good point Aurum.
Also a statistic I would like to know is how fast and how many ventilators can the USA Manufacture
I hear they are ramping up now.
Yes NO2….thats the way to go
🙂
Im afraid this is the only thing that matters. Having life saving facilities and equipment.. for this year.. and the others!!! This will be recuring every year.. and i dont think we will go through another lockdown. They will rationalize we now have enough immunity.. and that healthcare system are robust enough to handle the extra/peak workload. That is the only viable solution. Accept the virus (co-live).. but on our terms.. when we are ready.
Patrick, I hope you are right that we wont go through another lockdown. I don’t see how another lockdown is sustainable with the Millions of unemployed being crushed by it. My heart breaks for them.
Somehow we need to support our local businesses that are shutting down.
This patron did it with a $2500 tip for the waitstaff:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-bar-tip-trnd/?hpt=ob_blogfooterold
Awesome!
100% agree. During Gov Cuomo’s NY presser today, he did display the number tested — but I can’t find that number on-line. The problem in the US is that there are not enough tests to test the “healthy” so there is no way to measure the infection rate. The only ones getting tested are the sick. Soon that issue will be resolved and we will be able to tell if the “social distancing” measures are working.
My opinion: Force the manufacture of a few billion N95 masks and go back to the new normal with everyone wearing one until there is no threat. This won’t help restaurants and bars — they are just going to be a sad casualty of this pandemic. We did order food from two local establishments for dinner today and tomorrow (and a six-pack of beer!), but these gestures of good will won’t save a lot of establishments.