I am out of my positions.  I wish I had panicked with Fully yesterday, but I was still hopeful that support for silver would hold.

I have been wrong on multiple levels, but the biggest was that somehow silver and silver miners would react differently than they did in 2008.  I’ve also been ignoring the fact that the GDX:GLD ratio has been extremely weak since it peaked in the summer of 2016.  So far this is playing out like every other instance of a peak in the ratio over the last 25 years.

You could also argue that GDX:GLD being so weak actually predicted a credit event, just like it did in before the 2008 crash.

As already pointed out, this week’s candle across the sector is one of the ugliest you will ever see–an absolutely gigantic outside week down.  Barring a miracle reversal into the close, conventional TA would tell you there will be follow through to the downside.

This week’s scary candle nothwithstanding, GDX’s overall weekly chart picture still looks ok.  Actually, I was surprised that it hadn’t come back down to test its rising 50 WMA when $gold was correcting into December.  Well, it is testing the 50 WMA now.

The silver miners on the other hand, as represented by SILJ, have broken well below the rising 50 and 200 WMAs, and also have broken below cloud support on the weekly chart.  It’s not impossible for them to recover soon, but there is absolutely no way I would ever characterize the charts now as bullish.

Commodities overall have been absolutely crushed and the unweighted commodity index (GCC) is making a new multiyear low as we speak.  So basically, with commodities and silver you have gotten none of the upside/leverage that US equities received, and yet when US equities “crash,” you get even more downside leverage than equities.  And yet even now US equities on a weekly and monthly basis are by no definition crashing.  The Nasdaq is still well above its 200 WMA.  GCC has touched its declining 200 WMA 2 times in the last 9 years and is dropping to new lows as we speak.