We are 15 weeks into this intermediate cycle for $gold, which is in the timing band for an intermediate top.  Also consider that many of the silver miners and silver have been lagging gold and gold miners since September last year and even more dramatically since the beginning of 2020.  Finally, since last year, $silver has tested the declining 400 WMA three times, the latest coming this week.  Each time it tested this level it has marked an intermediate term top.

To me this behavior resembles 2010, when silver and the silver miners underperformed early in the year (but held their ground in absolute terms) before starting their epic rise in August/September 2010.

It’s possible that we are going to get a very choppy ride down in the complex, with perhaps the April FOMC meeting (which I believe is scheduled for April 28th) marking the bottom.  Perhaps GDX will come all the way back to test its 200 day EMA.  I would expect $silver and the silver miners to positively diverge before $gold reaches its low.

I could very well be wrong about this scenario and $gold’s intermediate term top lies ahead of us, but the silver miners’ underperformance is concerning.  Maybe they can play catch up this cycle, but time is running out.