Loading ...Calling Norvast
And any other cycles experts. I’m trying to understand cycle behaviour in recent years. There’s a very clear and reliable decline into year end over recent years. My preferred outcome was to have some decent upside for the next few weeks before a decline into year end and a breakout next year. Thoughts on the apocalyptic chart below ?
I am not a cycles knowledgeable person, but you did say a drop to, I believe, 1190 was possible and it could still work out.
What better way to chase the poo out of everyone before turning up again?
I will comment later…thanks
Thanks Norvast. I know you’ve already posted your views extensively, and I really appreciate that. I guess what I’m getting at, is what do you think the chances are of a complete collapse back to $1050 or lower ? Is the dollar capable of breaking the rules and powering back above 100 ? Just interested in your opinion. As we are in the $1180 to $1195 region I had contemplated, I need the turn to occur very soon. If it doesn’t, I have to be prepared to acknowledge the alternative wipeout scenario. My work is strongly saying a turn is imminent. If that doesn’t occur, I see little that can prevent a complete round trip.
What we are witnessing in gold is a YCL (yearly cycle low), confirmed by a failed IC (weekly cycle).
The last YCL was Dec 2016
The purpose of this is to scare the pants off everyone and reduce sentiment to zero.
The moves into a YCL are almost always stretched.
This week is important because it almost certainly represents the turning point for USD, AUD and gold.
I never really get too interested in “price” as I am generally always looking at “time”.
“Price” will be what it is at the correct “time”.
It is important to look at various indicators and that is why I am always directing members to the AUD (a commodity currency), CHF, USD, some favourite miners, particularly AUS miners which seem to closely follow gold.
Normally the first weekly cycle out of a YCL is the strongest so it is NOT my expectation that it will fail but much depends on the strength of the USD because the USD and gold have been integrally linked for some time.
It is most likely that the USD will soon host a DCH and fall into a DCL, followed by another left translated daily cycle before hosting an ICL (some 6-8 weeks after the DCL). The first ICL out of the Feb YCL
It is what happens after that ICL that is most important for gold.
How strong will the USD be in the next weekly cycle be?
If history is any guide then it may be weaker than we think…
The Feb 2018 low was lower than the May 2016 3 year low and I expect the monthly high in this current 3 year cycle to be lower than the Feb 2018 3 year low and the cycle left translated and fail.
So when will that 3 year high occur?
The USD rose for 8 months out of the May 2016 low while currently we are in the 6th month.
Is it reasonable or unreasonable to suggest that once the new weekly cycle commences in say early October (say week 33) that the new ICH (weekly cycle high) in the new weekly cycle be lower than where it is at the moment?
Any substantial increase here makes it more difficult for the USD to move higher during the next weekly cycle.
In the meantime the AUD, like gold, is about to host an important YCL but again much depends on the USD on whether it will advance later this year when the USD enters it’s next weekly cycle.
So we need to look at other indicators which may give us a better guide.
More later…
Some additional comments…
July 2017 was NOT a YCL, only an ICL
Last YCL was Dec 2016
A YCL requires a failed IC and can stretch over 3 IC’s so you cannot assume that gold will move lower toward the end of the year.
That said I will not be happy if the next IC fails – during the “bear” leading up to 2015 almost all IC’s failed
It is NOT my expectation that the next IC fail because it is the first out of a YCL and therefore normally the strongest however much depends on the strength of the USD in it’s next weekly cycle (after it hosts a YCL in this current cycle, some 6-8 weeks away). The USD and gold have been integrally linked for some time.
Gold & other commodities are in the second stage of the longer 30 year commodity cycle and will continue to drive commodity based countries like Australia for a few years.
Look at BHP and RIO who are declaring big increases in profit despite the AUD.
The Australian miners are doing exceptionally well and making huge profits. There strength is not all reflected in their share price so there is plenty of room for upside.
They tell a completely different story to that told by HUI
The AUD looks as though it has hosted a YCL, or getting very close.
The Swiss Franc CHF has completed a half cycle correction and is now moving higher to host a DCH in maybe 10 calendar days time then drop into a DCL in late Aug-early Sep
Another sign that gold is close to a bottom and the USD close to a top.
That’s all very helpful. I’m going to read it carefully, so I can fully understand the implications. Thanks for taking the time to reply Norvast 🙂
Ditto, Norvast !