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I drew these support lines VERY carefully, by zooming in and making sure they were in exactly the right place. The most important one, on this log chart, goes all the way back to 2001. The implications of moving below it would be dire. The dollar is refusing to roll over at the moment, and has now broken above the right shoulder in a move that spells possible trouble for gold. If the dollar powers higher from here, gold could break into clear air and freefall. I don’t believe this will happen, for all the reasons I’ve posted in recent days. All indicators, sentiment readings and cycle positions are pointing to this being a major low for gold. It has to prove itself – not in the next few months, or the next few weeks, but days.
Truly nail biting stuff if you’re positioned in the PMs.
We will see if the laws of nature still apply.
Gravity is a law
🙂
That’s precisely what I had in mind when I made my comment. Just like gravity, some things are immutable.
Thanks Curlytop. I thought you may be referencing the supposed Laws of Economics as we here at Gold Central come to know them from Austrian Economics .
I am not as sure about those laws as I am about gravity.
Good two way discussion here . I agree with Northstar. Critical point .
Something about that $680-$730 area from 2006-2008 has looked “magnetic” for a few years on various charts I have seen and made over that time.
I wonder if it will “pan out” … ?
Gold has broken out of my pitchfork which go back to late 2010 but you’re looking at 18 years rather than 8 years. I thought my gold outlook was dire but yours is even worse! I was looking at around $900. Interesting that Ross Clark says this kind of low is usually an intermediate low. It’s make or break time for gold – yet again – and most of is decade, it doesn’t make.
Spock pretty much is in your camp but he doesn’t seem to have it on as short a leash.
Thanks Northstar. You are my guiding light:o
The USD is on calendar day 32 and may have hosted a DCH in which case it will now move lower to host a DCL in 10+ days time (say 23 Aug)
Because this daily cycle was right translated and NOT likely to fail then there will be another daily cycle before the USD hosts an ICL in 6-8 weeks time.
Normally to host an ICL this next daily cycle should be left translated and fail.
These are the conditions required for gold to move higher.
The AUD is on calendar day 39 and therefore in the timing band to host a DCL
This week was week 35 for the AUD which places it well & truly in the timing band to host an ICL
If the AUD hosts a DCL it will almost certainly be an ICL.
The AUD will more than likely host an ICL when the USD hosts a DCH
GDX is on calendar day 43 and therefore in the timing band to host a DCL
This week was week 26 for GDX which places it in the timing band to host an ICL
If GDX hosts a DCL then it will more than likely be an ICL
GDX will more than likely host an ICL when the USD hosts a DCH
Aug is month 6 for the USD since it hosted a YCL on 16 Feb 2018
At 6 months it increases the probability that it will be a right translated monthly cycle.
So once it hosts an ICL in say early Oct then we will need to be very observant of the next weekly cycle to check whether it moves higher than it’s current high (96.45) thereby extending, and ensuring, a right translated monthly cycle.
The key issue here Northstar is this…
By making a new monthly high in month 6 it almost guarantees that 16 Feb was an early 3 year low, the 4th since the 15 year cycle began in early 2008.
IF that is the case then there are years of downside for the USD until the 15 year cycle ends around 2023
So in a broader sense we are moving closer & closer to the 3 year cycle high before it rolls over into the final 15 year cycle low.
Thanks for all the comments. A couple of things we can probably all agree on – first, things are getting scary, with one line of support after another being broken. I’ve said for a while that a final flush to the $1180-$1195 area is possible. Secondly, pretty much all of the indicators are at extremes, suggesting a change of direction is imminent. I’m standing firm in my assertion that the gold bull is about to resume. Thank you to Norvast for your excellent cycle analysis, it’s a big help alongside the TA that many so kindly provide.