Loading ...Gold Breakout – HUGE Implications
This looks like a game-changer to me. Never mind inverse head and shoulders, necklines etc, gold (on this log chart) has broken out of a wedge formation going back 18 years ! This at a time when the dollar cycle peak is behind us and the gold cycle peak is ahead of us in the mid 2020’s. The masses are clueless, but we’ve been expecting this since the gold cycle bottomed over 2 years ago. Unless something goes badly wrong (something I’ve missed), and if we close above the support line at the end of this week, I’m as close to certain as I’ll ever get, that big moves are coming this year rather than next. The next stage of our young bull looks as if it can’t wait. Silver is likely to explode higher quite dramatically, and the miners could double by the end of the year. I’m still expecting the dollar to plunge another 8 points or so in the next 4 to 8 weeks.
Now zoomed in…
The $2500 target may be a little conservative, especially if the new petroyuan decimates the dollar (which is quite possible).
Thank you for sharing Northstar! I like the looks of the charts too. Many of us here are waiting right along with you for this bull to resume it’s uptrend. Springtime season for the uptrend in gold again??
P.S. It looks like 1355 is morning resistance today. Let’s see if she can break that or turns back down on us again. She seems to be holding there this morning. ;0)
Some horizontal resistance there, but if this is the real deal we’ll just blast through.
Totally agree with you. Resistance should be futile… 😉
Cheers Surf. Your cycle analysis is superb and is a crucial part of my thinking too. Ignore cycles and it’s like missing a big piece of the jigsaw.
Thanks Northstar Great chart and Agree with yor target for gold.
It appears gold has massive bottom diamond and 1355 may the resistance needs to be violated decisively.
Cheers Bikoo. This is a decisive week for gold (and silver/miners).
Great Chart and Analysis Northstar
Gold does look good…BUT of course Silver and the Miners still suck !
This IS a concern as no real Gold Bull has ever begun without these two at least participating.
I hear you Fully. Either silver and the miners launch in a big way and soon, or this could be a huge fail. If it is a huge fail, I think we might have to wait another 6 to 12 months (I’d have that as a very low probability at the moment, but not impossible).
I do not think this is a concern,as both miners and silver are influenced by gold action, only in Gold you have real money flow impacting supply demand, silver and gold stocks are more speculative investments and will only follow once gold has definitively turned the corner.
The problem is that retail investors are selling silver now as noticed by negative premium on Sprott funds and small premium when buying physical (I have friends that are selling silver now by the way).
This only shows that retail money (the herd) is ALWAYS wrong at bottoms, very impatient and influenced by too many newsletter writers predicting more downside in gold. (these same newsletter writers were bullish on gold in 2013-2015!)
I believe this is selective analysis
EVERY PM Rally is LEAD by MINERS (and usually SILVER) IMHO
Weak Miners IS a concern !
Weak miners are a concern. I’ve agreed with that. I do think that calling it selective analysis is fairly offensive though. I’ve laid out the reasons why I believe the PM market low is behind us, and the peak will occur sometime in the mid 2020’s. My analysis will proceed on that basis unless or until I have good reason to doubt it. I laid down a challenge (gauntlet) many months ago. If I recall correctly there were no plausible responses. I want to be challenged, but I’m still waiting for someone to post a chart that shows me how and why the dollar cycle and gold cycle are going to abort for the first time since we came off the gold standard half a centuary ago. I’ve explained that I am trying to post in a similar way to weather forecasting – say what I expect and why, whilst acknowledging the possibility of an alternative outcome, along with an assessment of how likely the alternative outcome is. I honestly don’t want to mislead anyone.
Excellent analysis, Northstar.
To clarify…I didn’t call your analysis ‘selective’ Northstar…I called it excellent.
I was responding to Alex’ opinion that Miners will catch a bid AFTER Gold breaks out…my point is they almost always lead.
Fullgold, in the 1976-1980 when gold rose strongly the miners never did lead and only went up 6 times when gold went up 8 times, so maybe you should be open that this time it can be different. Maybe miners will lead only when gold is above $1400, $1550 or at new highs, who knows? Time will tell. If you see this as selective analysis, this is your choice, but I believe we better debate on the possibility than excluding other opinions.
And do not forget that gold miners as a group have always been valued very expensive at 1-2 times NPV compared to base metal companies trading at 0.5-1 times NPV. So maybe the market is becoming more rational as it sees that the BHP’s and Rio Tinto’s of the world are making more money than the gold miners that are paying our very low dividends and have very low free cash flow yields too.
On the other hand if previous expensive valuations of gold miners will be tolerated again, this opens room for outperformce vs gold, the question is when and from what gold price level?
Fair Play…I wasn’t watching PM Stocks in 1978…so I wouldn’t know….but I have never see a strong gold rally since I have been paying attention …without a Miner rally first
That’s a fair point Fully. Apologies, I misunderstood
A $1362 quarter close this Thursday would bring the Fundi’s screaming into our tiny sector next week. Boat loaded with juniors and a 2% JNUG kicker.
I have a both load of juniors and already have NUGT. Nice reminder to everyone that Thursday, March 29, 2018 is the end of the trading week and quarter!!