To Coin A Phrase
From a poster that I’m going to miss, ‘synced moves’ are taking place now. There are several ways of looking at the gold chart. My bullish bias has been entirely down to my acceptance of the relevance of cycle theory. I know Surf is the expert, but I’ve been using forms of cycle theory in my job as a meteorologist since 1987. Pretty much everything on planet Earth that lives or is part of a natural or man made system (plants/animals/weather/climate/global financial markets) has a discernible cycle. To ignore that would be foolish. There is more than one way of viewing the recent price action in gold. Some show that we broke out a while ago, others show that we may be in the process of breaking out now. A few more dollars from here and however you slice it, we will have broken free from a very long term trend line on an absolutely massive wedge. Support currently in the $1220 region (that’s just a rough guide from the chart below).
and if you’re wondering what forces are at work – just look at where we are in the cycle. Examine the now positive and up-trending indicators like TRIX. The bottom red line turned from resistance to support at the start of the last bull run. All these years later and it’s providing important support. The down trending resistance line from the 2011 top has been broken to the upside on the log chart.
And whilst you’re wondering if gold might go to $800, take a look at the dollar chart and explain to me how you could view it as bullish…
If gold goes to $800 and the dollar climbs back to new highs it’ll be completely unprecedented at this point in the respective cycles. We’re fast approaching the point of recognition (as gold reaches the psychologically important $1400 and the dollar sinks to new lows). In my opinion, it’ll be at that point when money starts flowing into the mining sector and we see the mining indices playing catch up.
As an aside, after all the recent unpleasantness, I feel somewhat uncomfortable on this site, and will probably post much less frequently. I’m not wanting the sort of ‘debate’ that took place recently to happen to me. I prefer somewhere where all views and opinions are welcome, as long as they are backed up by charts that make sense and a polite turn of phrase.
Please don’t disappear as other wonderful people have just because of a few grouches. I always look forward to your posts.
1350$ on weekly basis is my break out target. Let’s see where we go from here.
Please don’t leave Northstar, echo the sentiments above.
Perhaps there may be a way back for our former friend, it’s not about being early or late it’s all about being right and sitting tight. We are all friends here and I hope we can unify soon.
Reminds me of a saying in the UK, well not a saying more of an occurrence, when a kid shows up to play football, but when something the kid doesn’t like happens they take back their ball and spoils things for others who were having fun. Now I’m not saying this is the same, yes disagreements happen, yes there was harsh tone used, but we are adults here!! Not kids. Shake my head sometimes at the absurdity of it all. What we also need to remember English is not everyone’s first language here and what may seem confrontational to you may not be intended that way at all. Lesson for myself
Thanks Northstar. Agree with all of your analysis, and everything in your post. This is my last post here, just wanted to thank you for your contributions.
Thanks, and I’m sorry to hear that PT. I understand how you feel. I’m going to mull things over for a while, and see how I feel in a few weeks. There aren’t too many sites like this around but if I find somewhere, I may end up spending much less time here.
Sorry to hear that as well. Things seem to be trending down around here…
Ah, stick around.
Judging by the sudden lack of comments, I believe others feel the same as you. Any idea of what site you might be at more frequently
I’m not sure Pyrite, but I’ll give it some thought. You’re probably right. The recent bad feeling seems to have put a lot of People off commenting.
NS….don’t leave. I am assuming you are referring to the recent brouhaha between Fully and Grady. If you do decide to leave, please tip us off to the we site you’re heading to. Thanks for the great analysis. I was always a skeptic of cycles and cycle analysis, but I think you may have a solid handle on them.
Thanks for the comment Jim. I’m just feeling a bit disheartened about the site at the moment. I probably just need to be less sensitive but it left a bit of a bad taste in my mouth. As far as cycles go, Surf, Spock and Graddhy all seemed to have it nailed to me.
Graddhy at least had a long term view, the only way we can make money in these markets. Short term cycles are important, but if gold goes through 1350 a lot of investors will be left behind because they were too much focussed on day to day volatility of PM markets. I never understood the whole debate on this forum some are referring too and what happened, I only see the result that the quality of the forum has declined.
Every one is here by Invitation.
All views are welcomed.
You are all still very much valued and highly Appreciated.
I believe all of you have been treated with respect and have respected eachother.
95% of posters have come and stayed .
I really really hope you all do as well.
If this is not to be….thank you all for your contributions …you will be missed.
Fair comment.
Good charts, Northstar. Thank you.
Well done Fully! You have been more than accomodating to Graddhy for a long time.
Why? The loss is on our side. Less posters, less views, less insight. If I don’t like what I read, I don’t say much or just ignore the poster’s content. Big deal.
I heard an interesting comment once: “A survey once said that 95% of people support free speech. But the truth is that 100% of people support free speech, 95% of the time.”
Just expressing my opinion.
I don’t post much but read here everyday, sometimes several times a day.
We’re all bound to have a bad day now and then end maybe a bit more tolerance and patience needed at times.
Overall, I learn from all of it, even the debates!
Probably a good way to look at it.
We’ve lost Mark, Graddhy and now maybe you Northstar? I watched all of this unfold for both of them and knew where it would all end up. This site is getting ridiculous. These are without question some the best posters we’ve seen with no angles or motives in their writings other than to educate- and they all end up leaving. No doubt it takes two to tango and yes some people may be overly sensitive to criticism. Arguably too thin skinned. Graddhy often took the bait. But, there’s no question that some people know exactly what buttons to push and continued doing so until the relationship became untenable. NS- you do what’s best for you. All the best.
My sentiments exactly.
Anyone who goes to the trouble of posting work, especially on a regular basis, out of the goodness of their heart and a desire to educate is worth hearing. I may not agree, and if I don’t, I don’t usually say much or just leave a short comment and reason, and that’s that.
Northstar really enjoy your posts/insight… I’m on twitter if you (or anyone else for that matter) care to join/follow me. There’s a great finance community there. @wide_tires .
I don’t use Twitter much, but I can easily start. Just followed you (@wadsykev)
Hey NS, I’d like to continue reading your and Graddhy’s posts wherever they are published. Remember to send me a link if you decide on a new home. 🙂
I’ll be sad to see you go NS. Less reasons to check back here.
Appreciate that Sgt Schultz. This is usually a great site. Recent events left me disappointed. I’m going to give it a while before I do anything rash
Thank you Northstar.
I feel very sorry for what has happened,I have great respect for both Fully and Graddhy and I respect their choices.
This is a great site,Fully made it a reference in the world of gold analysis, I really hope it can stay on these levels and improve further.
Agree with your sentiment there Mamare.
Some of you think I’m an insensitive prick obviously.
I disagree but that’s opinion too.
I’ll share some experiences I’ve had on the other side of this situation.
I was involved with Trader Dan’s Site. I actually 100% instigated him to form a pay site. I was visiting his free blog and he was getting creamed by goldbugs…just raking him because of his views and he would fight back with every one of them before he would nuke them. It was a sad situation as he obviously was a professional trader and was sharing his knowledge for free. I called him up one day and encouraged him to get a pay site and be done with these ingrateful bashers .
Anyhow I contacted him and told him Audept and I had set up Rambus with his pay per view site and it was really successful .Rambus was also an outcast from goldbug central ( the Original Goldtent)…I and others ran him off that board ..but finally when his charts proved to be right and we all lost a lot of money holding on during the 2008 crash…I was able to contact Rambus and encouraged him to start a site. Audept has all the know how and has been my partner all the way on this incredible journey.
So we set up trader Dan’s World and Dan was thrilled and was doing well with subscriberships.
We had a forum called the Beehive…long story short…Dan and the gang there didn’t like my charts. Not what they were saying but didn’t like Chartology…specifically POs….( Price Objectives)….MY kind of TA was not welcomed…there was a member who held court and rounded up a posse and decided ONLY Momentum indicators and a few of Dans favorite indicators could be used there…so they eventually BOOTed my ass off that board….and ultimately Dan took the site over and excommunicated Audept and I….taking all our work with him…there are members here who were there to see this all unfold and I am sure they can confirm.
Now getting back to the original Goldtent circa 2004 to 2011….the group there didn’t take kindly to us hitching up with that outcast Rambus…they considered us traitors…one day they up and left en mass…every last one of them and were allover on a newly set up board…whooping and hollering and trash talking us….they were like crazed Indians smelling blood… and they scalped us and dragged us behind their horses …figuratively…it was humiliating I can assure you…Our own Little Bighorn 🙁
So we had an empty board here with nothing but a URL.
We decided to dedicate the new Goldtent TA Paradise to Technical Analysis of the PM markets ( as Personally I was saved a second financial fleecing in 2011 2012 buy Rambus and actually made a huge amount of $s trading PMs short and wanted to share this knowledge with open minded folks ( if there were any in goldbugdom)_…it was very very quiet at first ….then the Eagle Seagle set up here and posted in a vacuum…he was later joined by a few others like Mark…Mark came from another board where he had a fight with the members over trading and was happy to find a place to post…then after a couple years he had a blow up here and moved on again.
Anyhow the point is..we set up this site to attract a community of open like mined individuals with ta skills and encouraged them to hone their craft and share it back and forth. We also attracted many neophytes willing to learn TA ..we are still attracting great PM TA guys here all the time.
Unfortunately occasionally personality conflicts occur ..like in any organisation.. and some members leave one way or another.Some leave because they are asked to as their welcome is worn out ( 5 people in 7 years)..others leave without any fanfare because they have a difference with somebody..many that you are not aware of.
Bottom line… for Audept and myself this is a labor of love…we have never had any motive but to foster an environment where PM enthusiasts can come and learn and teach and share their knowledge…and we do it at our own financial and emotional expense….Yes we promote sites Rambus Spock and Surf City…not for our financial gain but because these guys are incredible technicians and are worth a LOT more than a few bucks a month in what they can do for ones financial health and trading life. Bottom line…they deserve to be promoted and members are all the better for having found them. IMO.
So today I am an asshole again….This is a thankless job at times and yes there are times when I would like to just pull the plug and say goodnight Irene..this is one of them…
…BUT the Good always outweighs the bad. The best days are like today when I get emails out of the blue form long time lurkers who say we have saved their financial asses time and again and now they are making money with the ideas presented here at the tent.
Also I am humbled by the friendships fostered with some really great human Beings like My partners Rambus Audept Spock Surf City Plunger and many of you folks who participate in this community…posters and lurkers alike…It is amazing to have conversations on the board and in private emails with like minded folks from all over the planet.
I sincerely hope we can all move forward together but I’m not that Naïve.
If you are compelled to leave the tent… sincere thanks for participation and continued good trading to you. …and May the Lord have mercy on your trading Account
🙂
Fully
PSI WE will keep on going ..Fully aware that there will always be those that disagree with some decisions and others who will applaud these same decisions.
..Bottom line I’ve been involved in a lot of different venues and there has never been one close to being as honest and fair and open as Goldtent …
For those that choose to keep coming to the tent….stand by we are about to get even better ….I can assure you of that.
Now back to our regularly Scheduled programming
Goooooooollllllldddddddddd ! Woohoo !
Fully, I know from experience that any time we do basically volunteer work, it goes unappreciated much of the time. And some times you even get attacked. As humans we often times have diametrically apposing ideas and the consequent conflicts.
I have thought MANY times how much I appreciate your endless monitoring and contributions to this and Rambus’s sight, that you put in. When the hell do you have time to work on teeth! Even floss for that matter?
I do think it’s good if any of us challenge each other. Life is full of conflict, get use to it.
I was around on Trader Dan’s free site back in the day. Trader Dan was actually the one that turned me on to TA—His comments on “King World News” that didn’t jive with the “to the moon” crowds predictions got him “uninvited” there, and I quickly realized that the hard-core gold-bug sites are pretty useless. I began to poke around on TA sites like his to try to understand what he was seeing.
I’ve noticed a parallel between the recent scuffle between Fully and Graddhy, and Dan’s interactions on his site before he added a paywall: Too much personal involvement from the moderator. You could watch it play out on Dan’s site: He could be a gentleman when he wanted to, but would skewer you if he didn’t like your opinion. Who wants to hang around with a guy like that? My opinion of him changed when I witnessed his behavior with dissenters. How you treat those that you do not agree with says a lot about your character.
I’m part of another forum, and there the moderators are more detached and liberatrian, and let the community police itself, without getting involved in personal debate. State your case, and let it stand. Time will tell who’s right, and all of that can be done respectfully. Calling someone out for violation of a site policy (profanity, etc.) is fine, and goes towards creating a civil environment. If someone is being a jerk, the rest of the community will let them know. Excessive intervention by the moderators only creates schisms and those in the middle get sick of the infighting and leave. Interestingly enough, most of the people on the forum I mentioned above are there because the “other forum” had the problems I outlined above.
In my opinion, this site could do with a few more posters who take “the long view”, and I’m not just talking about long term POs. I don’t really trade—I spend more time with fundamentals, geology, and speaking to management than with TA. But TA and cycles help me see the trend (and potential changes to it) and current market sentiment. The cycles plus TA stuff was really enlightening for me. I’d love to see more of that by others that understand it better than I, and even some fundamental analysis mixed into that which may help explain the cycles.
Fully, I’m not here to bust your chops—Hopefully you’re willing to take from this what you find to be useful, and that “sentiment” improves here. IMO, free sites are the most honest—People like you and Audept are doing this out of the goodness of your heart, which is commendable, without ulterior motives. But don’t go down the road that others have taken. The results are an echo chamber of like minded people, not an open marketplace of ideas.
you are smart enough to know this had nothing to do with this posters views or positions….jeez I take a different position every day myself…geez…it was the endless battle…..a personality clash to be polite….and some very disturbing off board stuff.
You won’t find me laying back and laisse fair here…..That’s not who I am….there have been 5 posters in 7 years we had to decide to “let go”
That’s pretty good. ….others piss me off but we work to find common ground and understanding…that is not always possible ….you know that from “real life”
Onward pilgrims
Appreciate you taking the time to respond in such detail.
We need you and love you, Northstar. Don’t dump us, please.
Plus 1:)
I would just like to add that I love this sight! Happy Valentines HAHA. seriously this is a great site and one I am constantly logging into. I am not a big poster but I do have a valid insight now and then. So please folks say around as my gut is telling me good times are headed our way. Mahalo Nui Loa.
Thanks for all the comments. The strength of this site lies in all of you guys really. Without the great work of those that post and the feedback from the comments and discussions we would just have another pointless blog. It’s the sharing and learning that makes it work. I want to carry on in that spirit, so I’ve decided to stick around and try to add my thoughts to the mix, for what it’s worth. Fullys run through the history of the site was interesting, and whilst I’m uncomfortable with what happened, I do appreciate the work by both him and Audept. I hope that doesn’t come accross as patronising. It’s not meant that way.
Jolly good.