My variation of Fully’s (h/t) chart:

The scenario that fits the above chart is:

  1. 2018 – War (Korea), price rallies up to reversal point 5.
  2. 2019 to 2020 – GFC 2.0 (trigger/s undefined), price falls back to reversal point 6.
  3. 2020 onwards – QE to Infinity. Price rallies back up from reversal point 6 to reversal point 7 and breaks out there. Thereafter, another 10 year rally begins, this time in “everything”, because the rally is being primarily driven by currency debasement.
  4. 2030 onwards – US loses reserve currency status, all globally traded commodities, including gold and silver, switch to being denominated and traded in the new reserve currency. Change happens within 24-72 hours, leaving the average guy on the street with his head spinning.

Nothing lasts forever and if you keep printing money, with no backing behind it, people eventually lose confidence in it for that reason alone. Happened in Ancient Rome, Weimar Germany and countless other places at different times. In that respect, the US is most definitely *not* exceptional IMHO.