Things could be choppy for the next few weeks/months. I’m fairly confident we’re going to see some sort of low point in December. What happens between now and then I’m less sure about. We’re probably getting close to a short term low, and it remains to be seen how much we can recover before that end of year low. I will acknowledge that greater forces could take hold and prevent that end of year dip from being a big deal – it’s something to be aware of though, and prepared for. The 2007 to 2011 analog is a very close match at the moment. If it were to hold, we wouldn’t see that end of year dip. I’ve included that chart below, as it’s worth being aware of. My preferred ‘model’ is weakness into year end, but I, for one, will be quite happy if it doesn’t happen.

The second chart below shows quite clearly (I think), how the cycles are crucial. They act like a magnet drawing price up into the cycle high and repelling price back down into the cycle low. This chart is telling us in simple terms that the price pressure is upwards for the next few years. Sit tight and be right 🙂