As I’ve said many times, I believe we are still in the early stages of an exciting new gold bull. I’ve also said that as we march upwards, I’m going to be looking down so that we don’t panic every time there’s a normal correction/consolidation.

Spoiler Alert – I think we are going back to the $1260-$1280 region by December

I’ve been looking very carefully at the most recent point on the gold chart that fits with where we are today. That’s the breakout in 2009.

The following chart shows that period and what followed. This is really important, because if, as I believe, this is a good guide, it can give us some really useful clues about what to expect if we have a healthy bull ahead of us.

Superimposing all of that onto current price action gives us this as guide…

The ups and downs appear more exaggerated, but that’s just because the scales are slightly different. The recent rally out of the bullish triangle may have a little further to run. I looked more closely at how the indicators are lining up compared to 2009…

We appear to be getting close to a short term top. When price turns, and it may already have peaked, it’s a slide back to that support, wiping out most of the recent gains. We need to be realistic in our expectations – after that December low, we’re likely to see a much bigger surge in price. Rome wasn’t built in a day as they say. I’ll just sign off by sending my thoughts to anyone in the path of any of the terrible hurricanes heading through the Caribbean and towards the US, as well as large parts of South Asia. With recent, significant sea level rise, places like Miami are, in time, going to be unfit for habitation. It’s a very sad position we find ourselves in.