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Actually, if we’re talking about PM stocks, I’d take as many as you can ! So where are we now ? This is a huge pattern we have in gold and the dollar.
Both go back for many decades, and have been following some great cyclical and ‘chartology’ rules. On a shorter timescale (days/weeks/months) things happen to move price against the expected trend, but, in the end, the larger forces win out. Unless I’m missing something, we’re embarking on a very big move for gold and the dollar (and many other asset classes). Every dog has its day I guess. What we want to see now is a steady uptrend in price with ‘bull flag’ type consolidation on the way up to the $1550 region.
The mainstream haven’t caught onto this yet, and very little is being made of the dollars predicament. That’s all good. As awareness rises, it’ll add fuel to the fire. From a charting point of view, it doesn’t get much clearer than the following two examples…
As always, I’ll be keeping an eye on support levels (looking down as we go up), but at this point, I’m comfortable that we can expect an upward trend for PM’s into 2019/2020, with normal pullbacks before the first big correction, where I will probably exit some positions for a while. We don’t need to worry about that yet though.
Agree, thanks
Agree as well. Long time lurker, first time commenter – just wanted to say I really enjoy the discussion on this site and the quality of the analysis. Things look set up for a solid run in the sector. One anomaly I’m a little concerned about is the relative underperformance of silver and silver stocks, coupled with the absence of a final washout move in that subsector. Would feel better if they were either outperforming, or there was a v-shaped capitulation and rebound. But everything I watch says this is the real deal.
Thanks for the comment PT. Yes, I think this is just about the best site out there for PM and associated analysis. I don’t entirely rule out some sort of ‘price plunge event, but the more time passes, the less likely it is.
I’d think the outperformance in gold is mostly geopolitical premium. Silver typically doesn’t get much of that. My personal opinion is that it doesn’t matter much at this point. There’s been a clear large breakout and there won’t be some sort of capitulation event on silver just for the sake of getting one in. Base metals are flying, gold is flying, silver may be lagging a little but I think it’s just “on sale”. The silver miner ETFs are all showing clear breakouts. I’m thinking physical silver will catch up at some point. By that I mean we’ll see mid 20s next year. Once institutions notice it’s lagging and it gets moving, watch out. It’s like gold on steroids. Last year it went from 18 to 20+ in 3 weeks.
Sounds great. Thanks.
It’s almost Hallowe’en and I’m afraid. Gold and PM stocks may not correct.