The mighty dollar is resting right on its 200dma…

If it’s on the way to new highs it won’t lose the 200dma. If it drops from here, there really can be no more debate about whether or not the dollar cycle is still ‘working’. Just in case you think the TSI and MACD are very low and ‘ready to turn up’. Here’s the dollar index when you zoom out a bit – both those indicators can fall much further…

I’m not saying it’s impossible for the dollar to rally and make new highs. I’m saying that it’s a very low probability outcome. It’s hard to dismiss a cycle that has been in place for decades. If this cycle is still ‘working’, I’d bet my bottom dollar that the gold cycle is still ‘working’. If this is a once in 50 years ‘post bubble contraction’ then yes, the cycles probably will be disrupted. Game on.