Provocative Gold Chart
I posted this chart a while back and of course received many polite comments to the effect…NO WAY FULLY !
Since there is not much going on right now in Gold…I am posting it again and asking …Why Not ?
Believe me as a closet goldbug ( yes back in the closet) I am not hoping for this scenario as by the time we have lift off I may very well forget what I was waiting for
BUT you have to admit its a really good fractal.
$1900 in 2011 Gold was a parabola…just as was $800 Gold in 1980.
If nothing else…put yourself back in 1985…How old were you..what were you doing ? How much did you follow Gold back in 85. If you rode the great parabola and held on were you ready 6 years after that blowoff for another moonshot ? Did you or would you have held your PHYS and Mining stocks for another 15 years ! ?
There’s a whole generation of people who got caught up in the end of the world hype in the late 70s who bought gold and died well before the next great Bull of the noughties ! Left their stash to their heirs who no doubt sold it all.
http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/1986.html
Shoot the messenger if you like. I would like to hear everybody’s take.
1985 Song of the Year
See Y’all in 2033
🙂
The difference between 2011 and 1980 is 30 years, this means next parabolic top is due 2040. Other tops we had in 1920, 1947, these peaks are separated by 25-30 year intervals.
What about gold/silver miners….would they follow physical or would they experience a bull market of their own as happened in the 90’s? (gold barely moved back then whereas gold/silver stocks had probably the best bull market of their history).
Great point Mamare…if this plays out the same that will be 15 years after the Big Top…2026…but of course can happen any time
Time to do your chart magic and mumbo jumbo fractals on TBT, imo.
Double inverse 20yr US T’s.
Made a low last summer. (concurrent with high in gold)
Retraced (helping gold back up)
But is now making a higher low and giving me a fresh LT buy signal (but s/t OB)
All sorts of implications … see Jeff Gundlach’s piece in ZH today also.
Was looking at the same thing last nite as well. ! Who is left out in the general population to want/understand gold? We need fresh fish to start biting and I have no faith in the Snowflake Generation to ante up some digital fiat anytime soon. The elderly are broke or retired having fun. The chart may very well extend as a generational change in society may be coming. I just learned that the kids today cannot read handwritten words easily as everything is in printed format only. And on another topic, those Platinum Edition trucks just don’t make sense with plat in the dumpster ? 🙂 Maybe Bitcoin Edition get some sales.
Silver just flash crashed down to a 14 handle.
Been my niggling concern since last autumn…
Mind you, at least we have a roadmap
Must admit, it crossed my mind too. I have a similar chart I did a while back. Certainly a possibility.
In 1982 gold went from $300 to $500 – a rise of 60%. If we go as low as $1000, a similar performance would see us up to $1600 a year later.
Two words that may make it different this time – Quantitative Easing! If the markets fall and we enter a recession will they start the money machines again?
Re the miners, I still like the ‘fractal of hope’ you posted previously FGC.
Very difficult times, which is why I love this site and the Rambus site, as I need all the help I can get 🙂
Thanks everyone for the feedback and ideas.