Bear Flags : Redux 2.0
Recall back 2 weeks ago before the flush I posted on the predominance of bear flags throughout the sector and how it was ominous. Well we did break down, but guess what…here we are again. Plenty of those flags have reformed.
But first a look at gold.
The Matterhorn update looks like it is building out the set-up for a classic halfway pattern breakdown. This would target a move down to the lower blue dashed line of 1208 as a minimum. Possibly even lower.
On the second daily gold chart the decline looks absolutely treacherous. It has the look of an unfolding disaster, which will take no prisoners, This looks dangerous knights.
Platinum and Silver confirm.
Platinum is a much less emotional metal and it often leads gold. Here we see Platinum getting a head start ahead of gold and may be signaling more trouble ahead for gold. Don’t forget to view the money flow on the bottom it’s a rush to the exits. Finally silver, I purposefully omitted drawing any lines on this chart to make the moving averages stand out. This is ugly knights. Look how the breakdown sliced right through the 150 & 200 EMA just as they flattened and are now tilting down. Also the 200 EMA has acted as a cap on price. Silver has not been able to sustain a closing price above the 200 EMA. Trouble ahead.
The Bear Flags
I am just posting a few of these so you get the point. What we see here are sequential bear flags forming. This looks very foreboding to me.
Note how the relation to and interplay of price to the 150 EMA on these. Need I remind everyone that a bear flag underneath or on a declining 150 EMA is a major red-flag and spells trouble.
TAHO seems to be the cleanest and clearest as to what lies ahead. Note the CMF indicator on all of them. Its saying get me out.
So where is this all leading? As I have mentioned, this correction has been an 8 week -31% affair. That’s longer and deeper than the average first correction in a bull market. It appears to me we have had a fervent religious element in the PM sector that needs to be shaken out and Mr. Market is setting up to do so.
Viewing the chart below of the GDX, if GDX was to rip through support at the 21 level and as a worse case decline to the 19.33 level I believe the required shake out would be accomplished in spades. At that point faith and belief in the new bull market would be sufficiently violated to allow the next advance to begin.
I have stated several times I have adopted a defense posture. I continue to be defensive and will lighten up even into my core next week. I do still play opportune longs however. Note I took a major position this week in CCJ and I bought Cornerstone resources at 0.11 last week in size. (CGP.V)
Thanks Plunger
Sobering
Summary: why I will do nothing even though you may well be right.
You bought Cornerstone now. I sold it, unfortunately, in 2015 and had to buy it back early this year at I believe a higher price, albeit at a price far lower than now. Similarly there are various others that I wasted my time selling that have come way back up above where I sold them a year or more ago. Others were good to sell since they were trash–ANV stands out as one I should have sold had I not been so stupid. All in all, I’m not so sure that the aggressive selling I did during the decline was very bright. Clever, maybe–bright, no. To be bright I would have focused more on the individual companies.
You are far better than I at this sort of thing and may make a lot more money at it than I–though some may have to go to the accountants and other tax people for the in-out-in-out action. I consider a very reasonable possibility that things may hit my mental stop, which is just below the lows of this year (but will depend on the given company among other things). I will be miserable then, whether selling or watching things about to bounce back. However keeping such a loose stop may be useful in this situation, for me, given what I personally face. There are some situations where high gains are most likely with wildly loose stops. I estimate this to be one with a high reward/risk ratio for perilously loose stops.
And how much I hate handing over little trades here and there to the accountants and keeping records myself! I have a near phobia for updating this sort of garbage for the accountants all the time. What a waste of my life! I love watching the markets for casual entertainment. Paperwork and taxes from trading? Vomit ^(extremely high powers).
(I do reserve the right to change my mind and bail out if I perceive fundamental changes in overall conditions or my own situation. Others may do poorly following my example. I have made ever so many mistakes in my life. I have probably just crashed the PM markets with my comments here. Cornerstone also may be doomed now.)
What we are basicly talking about here is a second BT to the support line of the massive expanding falling wedge that exists on most indexes. That would make a circa 10 % drop further from here as posted by Fully for HUI here:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=383885
And I posted yesterday that we could see FBO down over GOLD´s support / trend line, which then would probably correspond to the 10% further dip in the miners:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=383890
So, agree, we could drop maybe 10% more from here. The reversal should be strong from there.
Let´s watch.
thanks Plunger I agree with all here and take Karl’s stand -bought DUST Friday and hot to sell this week – best to us all
One last rapid flush as in January for capitulation…I remain flat, but will jump on DUST if the charts dictate…
Nice work Sir Plunger!