Loading ...Graddhy ; A healthy debate please
You are bullish on Oil…that is well documented …However
You posted a link just now to your April 20th Oil post …with Oil at $51
I am quoting that piece and pointing out the charts at that time and have added the red lines to show what happened next. ( a $9 drop )
Does that $9 drop not change YOUR ANALYSIS ?
………………….
April 20 2017
“The drop we saw yesterday was nothing out of the ordinary as $WTIC has had many drops like that. And quick drops some time after an important BT is not uncommon as some chicken out and starts thinking that the BO and BT is not real. If one looks at the weekly below it is quite clear that the drop yesterday was only a quick-after-BT-drop in order to tag the EMA30 weekly one more time before we move higher.
Starting with the daily below we can see that the drop yesterday can seem large but in the bigger scheme of things it is common price action for oil. Here I am looking for a second, larger c&h (green) that will energize an around the apex move (purple triangle), plus take out the dotted resistance line on the weekly below.
“Moving on to the weekly, below. I have posted this chart before and it shows a clean cut inverse h&s that has BT. Here you can see that the drop yesterday was only in order to tag the EMA30w once more. We can also see here that it was no wonder that price stopped where it did when we see that dotted resistance line. That one also explains why the daily above turned around where it did. Also, the yearly cycles on this chart matches the major lows perfectly and shows clearly that the last yearly cycle low occurred at the BT to the neckline of my inverse h&s. Pretty stylish really”
……………..
1…..Would you agree that this projection for an around the apex move did not work out, The Inverse H and S Failed and moving averages did not support the price and the cycle Low was not THE low ?
2……Are you still Bullish nonetheless ?
3……Why ?
I am not posting this to mock these charts BUT I have had many charts blow up as well and I feel it is necessary , when a call goes so wrong , for ones credibility to be able to say…my charts did NOT work out…but here is another idea.
With respect
Fully
Even if we bounce here, which I believe is happening, there is no way to paint the last 2-3 months in oil as anything but bearish.
As I have stated clearly maybe 10 times or more:
I am interested in the big trend not the wiggles; I do not trade in that sense.
Yes, the trend the last few months has been down, and I have never said anything else about that, in fact, I have said nothing about that since I do not trade the wiggles.
We all use the charts here. But the really compelling thing to me is the oil story. Watching OPEC make total horses asses out of themselves has actually been quite entertaining. This is a big macro story unfolding before our eyes. I still see both the charts and story revealing a path to lower lows. We are still in a bear market the $26 low needs to be tested, either higher or lower
I applaud your effort here Fully to backtest those who choose to use a very adamant tone of voice in their charting analysis, when the results aren’t entirely measuring up to the level of confidence that’s conveyed. We all have strings of successes and failures, smaller and larger. And an honest dose of humility is usually present when we post our views. Those who choose to stick their necks out without admitting to a goodly amount of uncertainty had better be routinely right, or they should tone it down.
Lol, seriously? Graddhy always posts with humility. And on top of that, he spends great time and effort putting together well reasoned and comprehensive posts, from which I have benefited tremendously.
+1
Not sure that can be called a healthy debate Pedro, as Fully called for in his post.
Lets not drive away posters with this kind of personal comment. I do not like Kens doom pattern (makes me sad), but I did not resort to personal comments just stated why i did not like it and why I felt it was not going to work.
This is a great site so lets keep it factual and we will all benefit. Well me especially as I am still way down the learning curve 🙂
Graddhy has always been very conistent and generous in sharing his analysis!
He reflects confidence but lacks not of humility.
I am not an expert but I esteem he has not yet been proven wrong on his take.
I could not hold myself back from making this comment since he is one of those whose post I appreciate most on this site !
Let’s see how this whole oil story (and uranium and miners and…) plays out…
Wow! Although I’m sure unintended this is turning into a big competition now. The post wasn’t meant to do so but it certainly has the feel of it. Fully’s intention I’m sure was genuine but could be taken as calling one out to now justify to the board his positions. I appreciate he is only trying to understand but once again sensibilities go out the window in favor of the need to know and the inference that ones analysis is better than the another’s. You can see how this is beginning to spiral with one comment suggesting that Graddhy has disingenuously justified his charting techniques. I’ve not felt that in the least and I regretfully sense people are taking sides between Plunger and Graddhy. This is what happened to Mark. He felt he was called out and left even though he was very insightful. If people want to invest based upon a post, that’s their prerogative. We are adults.There are lots of posters here who take a position based on their charts but not very often is one called out to now justify their post based on market direction. I think Fully honestly admires Graddhy’s work. However, because Graddhy has a post on oil that is very different from that of Plunger’s and because Fully uses this site to advertise Plunger’s work on Rambus’ site, one can infer a bias here which again I’m not sure was intended but can be taken as such.
Let’s be clear here, The site is about the exchange of ideas. I myself am only competing against one single entity and that is the market. Specifically price and the ONLY metric is whether or not I am making money. As for myself, this year I am up multiple 6 figures in my trading account so its working out and that is the only validation that counts or what concerns me.
Back to my charts
You are way too talented and gifted to sink to the level of posting gratuitous egocentric comments like that one Plunger. C’mom man.
For the record Mark was a great Chartist ( a favorite of mine and many) but his delivery became very in your face to all who disagreed with his position.
That was not OK . Then when his infamous trade blew up he left and continued to deride members of this site on another site and continued his infamous trade for spite and rode it into the ground.
This is a good example of ego ruining a trader.
I just don’t remember it that way. But, I’ll take your word for it since you may be more up on that as the moderator.
Since it is Fully who has posted a post like this I feel I have to reply. And I feel I have to be clear as I am tired of all these weird posts and comments by now.
It is with a heavy heart I write this as I really do not want to get into a conversation like this. And I really do not have time for this kind of stuff, especially since I am also a full time worker. Also, I really like GT and the members here. But it looks like I have no choice here now. I even emailed Fully privately when I saw this post and asked him if he thought this was a brilliant idea and he thought that it is so here we go, unfortunately.
It is pretty clear that I am singled out (not a feeling based on a possible disorder but a fact) by Fully as this is not the first time he posts a post on me like this. He has never done it with e.g. Plunger, Spock or anyone else. They all have posted many, many important charts that has blown up big time. Also, and this is important here now, they too used to post in a similar tone to mine before they became part of a subscription service. Therefore, the only reason I can see for Fully to repeatedly put only me on the spot like this is that I am very clear about what I think and also, and more importantly probably, that my posts right now happens to be the opposite of what Plunger and Rambus thinks, two who is connected to this site. That is obviously not an accepted road to take it seems. That is also shown by the fact that often when I post, Fully posts the opposite Plunger/Rambus view of what I have posted right after.
I linked to my big picture post on commodities in your post yesterday because it is easy to do so. It gives my general picture. If one wants to look at my updated charts, just search for my latest posts, e.g. the $WTIC post below.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=405601
Does the $9 drop in $WTIC change my bullish stance? Absolutely not since the chart developed into another pattern that seems very valid to me; see the link above here. That is how TA works.
And, the quotes you include above relates to my big picture post, not my latest $WTIC post. As said, if the chart morph, I change with it. And if the big trend is still intact then as I see it, I say that.
If I post a new chart pattern for a certain chart the old one has obviously not worked. That goes without saying and is valid for everybody. Now you are saying that we all should post/mention specifically every time a certain chart does not work out? That is totally unrealistic really. I have commented multiple times on that some charts did not work out but I think that the members here are intelligent enough to see that if they see a new pattern the old one did not work out. And by the way, there has not been that many charts really lately that are not game still. Most of all the maybe 70-80 charts in my three big picture posts are on track even if a small pattern here and there did not work out, the direction is still on track as I see it. Charts morph and I just practice what Rambus has taught me.
I only post charts I really believe in, and if they morph, I do as Rambus does, I find the new pattern, and if the long term trend is still intact, I say that is still what I think. There is nothing strange with this, in fact, it is the way to do it.
Also, I post extensively on the US dollar, uranium, PM, commodities, commodity currencies, some SM plus you name it. How many here does that..? And I am not only bullish on oil but on practically all expect for the US dollar for which I was the first here and at Rambuses forum to spot and call that it is going down big time, and most probably until we get a new monetary system.
Your headline about you wanting a healthy debate implies that I have not contributed to that. I would very much beg to differ. I ask for comments all the time. I have emailed with you back in time about how we could get more comments. I was pretty much the person with the idea behind a sort of mini campaign we did a while ago where we made a few posts trying to get the members to post and comment more. And also, I really try to reply to every comment that is made. Is this behaviour consistent with a guy that do not want a healthy debate? Some comments I admit I have ignored but only those that are disrespectful or are oozing an unbalanced personality.
Also, I consistently include different wordings like “I think”, “if I may say so myself”, “as I see it”, “seems to me like”, “looks like” “I would say” et c. This because it is reasonable to do so since one never knows and also because it sounds nice. And those phrasings show I would say that I do it in a quite humble way.
Also, what is a call? For example, Plunger always repeats that he makes no calls. But if so, can he then ever claim to have been right? No, as I see it. You can´t keep both doors open and then afterwards say that´s what I meant, as I see it.
Are all charts one posts calls? No. Are all trades calls? Yes. Are all charts where one says what one thinks calls? Maybe. And that is what I do. I stick my neck out every single time. And this is because, which I have stated many times, for me personally it would be useless to post without saying what I think. And to be honest, many posts are pretty useless without the poster´s own view added to it, as I see it. Sometimes I am clear about that this is a call. When I posted on uranium bottoming back in Nov16 I was clear about that it was a call. But let´s just say that I mostly only post charts I do believe in, call or not.
If you do want to continue with singling out me for these posts Fully, at least then please chose an angle plus arguments that sticks and are reasonably fair so I do not have to waste my time for nothing replying.
I feel all of this is just one sad story really.
I have tried to contribute to this site to the best of my ability and the time that I have. If that is not enough I have no option but to leave.
Thanks for posting your feelings. I of course encourage you to continue to post.
I know many others feel the same.
And we will hear from them as well
There will always be disagreements regarding market directions.
I am just wanting to keep both sides of the debate in proper perspective.
Its not about Plunger vs Graddhy at all ! its bull vs bear
In the post I link to in my lengthy reply above I have written:
“Most are here looking for a move down also and that makes me think even more that the surprise will be to the upside.
BUT, as I have said before, $WTIC and $CRB could both go down for a DB here. Time says otherwise though I would say.”
When I say here I normally mean around here. We got a bit more downside but price on the daily $WTIC is now back inside my pattern and on track after a FBO, as I see it.
This is in line with your wishes of “…keep both sides of the debate in proper perspective.” I would say. I do not do that every time though I admit, but on the other hand, who on earth does that here or over at Rambus forum..? Not even Rambus himself I would say.
I now realized that the quotes you include above is not from my big picture post on commodities but from my special oil post from April 20th, as you correctly has referenced above in the post also. This does not change anything in my above comment though but right should be right.
And, for the record, I posted my comment above because I did not think your post was fair. I still think that you do a great job as moderator in general and I admire that you have created this site, as I have said recently on email too.
I am in no way seeking confrontation myself, just clarification and a fair treatment.
Graddhy,I agree with everything you have said here. Yeah words “as I see it” is the most commonly used phrases in your posts. I greatly appreciate your contributions to this site.
Ditto for me. Appreciate graddhys as well as all the work here
If you do the work Inman humbled and grateful that you share it
We really do need the opposing views so we get both sides of the trades and I for one hope you continue to post Graddhy. Your posts are amongst the most detailed and constructive and would be missed.
I am disappointed at some of the comments we see on this site and there is an element of sniping that is counterproductive. The other day I posted an innocent comment on the Rambus site about a Plunger short I was following and immediately I got a reaction which I had to post a reply to. It did not feel very inclusive at that point.
I am also a member at EWT and I do not see this kind of negative comments on that site, in fact the opposite, as everyone tries to help each other to understand the trades. I do think we should all take a step back and try to consider carefully the words we use before we post. Let the facts speak for themselves and lets not fall out over differences of opinions.
Graddhy,
I always have liked your posts and understand why you wrote your recent reply to Fully. I agree Fully should not have posted his comments as he did. Secondly it is a fact that many other writers have been posting charts about their favorite scenarios and/or stocks that went completely south. Nobody ever commented on that. Thirdly I agree with your feeling that some writers favor the view of some writers affiliated with GT that have paying websites. Sometimes it feels like Rambus is the only expert having the right charts.
Nevertheless things happen, and I hope you stay on this forum Graddhy as it makes it far more interesting to read so many onions.
I always remember the comment of a famous trader that said technicals hardly work in some markets especially in junior shares where fundamental analysis is far more important than drawing lines about possible scenarios. Regarding oil, I am following other analysts that are bullish and were projecting a low in oil some weeks ago. We will now in the future if a repeat of 2007/2008 will happen or not regarding commodities.
I also agree with Alex33 !!
Thanks Graddhy for all your hard work that you share generously.
Please keep posting on this site for all those numerous members who appreciate you greatly.
Back a long, long time ago, when I was younger, I thought this kind of thing was kind of fun…let the fur fly and the chips fall where they may. Then I worked with an Aussie fella, and he always asked me, “What’s the objective?” I slowly began to see things through a different set of lenses.
It is unfortunate that Fully opted for this challenging post. Might have been better to ask a simple question than a full-blown call-out. Thanks for all that you do, Graddhy. I have learned a bunch from your writings and analysis. No one is right all the time, but I figure you have the integrity that if things changed, you would promptly post about that change.
Hoping you stick around…
thank you Graddy for your contribution to this unique group effort.right or wrong
your contribution has been well researched and presented to the benefit of us,free thinking individuals.which scenario,view,or opinion i follow ,if any,is my choice
and my responsibility.FGC might mean well but sometimes he is overdoing it!
please dont go,hate to lose another good and willing partner
The reason I stick with the “minute” charts; Knowing the mechanics behind trading is very important. If one’s opinion stated in a larger scale chart does not confirm with the minute charts, then it’s a no go in my book…Consider the larger perspective, but always trade in a smaller time frame. Focus, relax, and let the charts do the talking…Regardless, I always follow my own charts, but ALWAYS appreciate the varied work of others…Graddhy, you are a good man and appreciate your contributions…
As probably the only person here, that met Graddhy! He is soft spoken, select in his words when questioned… still humble but firm in thoughts.
I vote for a new TA site. Far from personal economic interest in other sites.
Who to steer??
Is there such a creature??
You Graddhy, is a person to start such a site.
NEMO
Special tribute to you my friend “Electrum”
I really appreciate your posts and excellent work Graddhy. I hope you stay and carry on posting. Your dollar call was spot on, and totally against the ‘dollar to 120’ crowd. You also said that gold may not rise straight away, despite the falling dollar. Right again. We’ll done. Your oil expectations are still to transpire, but either way, your input is very valuable.
I apologize in advance for the long winded rambling.
I’ve been fortunate to have done many things over the years mostly as a result of not being afraid of chasing dreams or sticking my neck out regardless of who’s dream it was or how crazy it may have seemed. As a result, my list of failures and witnesses to prove it is far from being short. Luckly, the winners have out numbered the loosers.
Thanks to a friend, I learned of Spock and immediately subscribed within minutes of first viewing his site back in April 2016. In fact, I was so appreciative of the lead, I purchased a Spock subscription for my friend the very same day as a way to say thank you. I then joined the Tent shortly after followed by the purchased of a Stockcharts subscription Dec 5-2016. My new desire to begin learning was a direct result of the incredible inspiration I got from Spock and ALL the contributors here on the Tent. I had just gone through a painful separation and this community became one of my new outlets.
Hope for a good out come was the first thought that came to mind after reading this post. I very rarely engage into a matter of debate unless it is my own. In this situation where is open for public view, I feel the need to express some thoughts simply because I care. I have a history of good intentions that seem to back firing more times than not.
For anyone who knows the history of the Eagles, there were times of conflict between band members. Many times it wasn’t the disagreement but rather the approach in the way things were conveyed that ended up becoming the bigger matter. One of the most significant periods, was shortly after Timothy B Schmit’s joined the band in 1994. Unfortunately for Tim, the excitement of being new to the group was quenched shortly after joining by the reality of a possible band/member separation. I share this story as a way to convey the heavy feelings I get during times of uneasiness as we currently experienced among my mentors. Yes, you guys are among my mentors. Its discomforting from the standpoint of how much we as a group stand to loose or possible be set back. I dont know the perfect answer or the best way to go about handling situations like this but I do believe there is a lot at stake with this incredible group of determination. For the first time in my 47 years, I truly believe I have found my element. I have found something I wasn’t even looking for and am grateful for the opportunity to learn from the many who are willing to share. Since I started charting, I set up 8 24″ monitors along with a 32″ flat screen on wall. I have 150 to 200 open charts tabs on a daily basis that I monitor. Most of the charts are recreations of the excellent work posted by other members. For a guy with an 8th grade education followed by the school of hard knocks, this experience and opportunity to learn has become priceless to me. There is not a university on the planet that can teach what Im learning here. Fully, Ive said before and I will say it again. “Im surprised that the service this site offers is free of charge”. Hats off to you!! I very much appreciate all your efforts that goes on behind the curtain to make this service avail to me!
I still carry a flip phone. I prefer avoiding long drawn out text messages that can often be misunderstood due to the lack of a tone of voice etc. Just like with reading a text, I sometimes struggle to get a feel with comments that are posted by other members. Point being, its hard to tell at times and easy to take wrong. One of my biggest failures in life has been my need but primarily my approach in the way I tried to hold someone accountable. Fueled by the difference of perception, stings would snap and things would spiral out of control. If there is one thing I have learned from being a now single parent of a 5 year little girl it this, (Kids/people in general wont care about what you know or think until they know that you care). The bottom line is I care about what we have here and hope that means something because It does to me.
My parents separated when I was in my mid 20’s. It was a tough time. One parent was about having my brothers and I choose sides while the other was struggling for neutralness. Not a fun situation to be a part of. The variation of perspectives and opposing views is just one of the many things that gives this place the fuel to obtain the upper hand it offers. As Plunger said, the competition is between us and the market. I have learned a great deal from both Graddhy and Fully and consider their teachings to be among some of my best. In fact, Graddhy’s late 2016 uranium call positioned me to regenerate nearly all of the loss I had from the miners fall that took place from August thru Dec. That one call along earned me over 200K from a guy with a strange thats positioned somewhere around this big spinning ball of rock we live on. Thanks again Graddhy!
I very much like and respect both of your guys, I hope things can move forward in a way that doesn’t take away from the goodness this place continues to offer.
Thanks to everyone for making this place not replaceable!
PS, I had the pleasure of meeting, having lunch and spending some time with Fully during the last PDAC show in Toronto. In fact, it was one of the highlights of my trip. Graddhy doesn’t know this, but I plan on meeting him someday on my way to see Spock. That is, if they will allow me:-)
Now that was just beautiful. Well said. My thoughts are with you.