Loading ...Yellow Flag is out for Silver — Caution Warranted
From the viewpoint of Gartley extensions. silver has reached a key reversal point today and there is significant risk of a large pullback that could begin at any moment. I still see silver rising to about 61 over the very short term but am not anticipating price will stay there long. The decline from here stands to be significant if the model merely follows its usual routine. At least 50% of the rise in other words which will take us back to 35 dollars. Don’t be alarmed….its completely normal after such a long bullish run.
Added Commentary for second chart:
For Plunger and Fully. I realize you are doubting. Many will. But consider my technical case. The second chart below will hopefully be more illuminating. The Gartley I use is based on a ABCD pattern and divided into 4 equal quadrants rather than by fibonaccis. This is a winning model developed by my long time friend Rick Ackerman and has been reliably spitting out deadly accurate results for more than 40 years. The second part of the chart is my channel work based on the X,Y line shown. That one arrives at almost a perfect junction to where price currently sits. Used together I have a method that reinforces itself and gives me a high degree of confidence. It is not a guarantee though. Price can blast right through the resistance line at times and leave you reeling. In this case though gold is also confirming a top so I feel confident. I hope this has helped you over your doubts about my sanity!
$35 But don’t be Alarmed …HA !
Thats like being on an aircraft flying at 40,000 ft and the Captain says we have some turbulence coming we are going to dive to 20,000 feet But Don’t be Alarmed…It’s a Good thing
SHEESH
PS…NO WAY JOSE !!!!
$35… Couldnt you get an ounce of Gold for that back in your day Fully.
I can’t imagine the amount of buyers coming in as it went down would ever let it hit that low. It seems maybe a 2% chance of that happening and it would be during a massive deflationary event that would take the world down.
I know, it sounds unlikely. But I don’t write the economic code guys and I have no leverage of the invisible hand. Sometimes these things are just written on the charts and I have to be honest with you and tell you what it says. It will be a Christmas miracle if silver keeps flying much higher though. Just be ready to bail out if I turn out to be correct. Don’t curse me…..just get ready for the unexpected.
could it be like the nickel frenzy a bit o go
I don’t know. Maybe a wider market meltdown is coming. That would flatten metals soundly like it always does. Bitcoin looks horrible too and it always follows the indices during major corrections.
There is nothing in that chart with those pastel colors to suggest such a drop that I can see
No pattern…just a random line at 61
Please explain what chart pattern or Indicator you are using Sir Farmer
When I get back to my desk I will draw a more revealing pattern to help explain. It will be the 30,000 foot view. It does make sense so I will do some explaining. Don’t be alarmed. Just take care this week because the reversal could be ugly and fast once it hits.
Why bother with a chart? Just say my opinion is….
Its not my opinion Plunger. The news is the layout on the chart. This is a mathematical, repetitive and reliable way to read charts. Silver looks like its sunk. Why? I do not know. The chart tells me all I need to know though.
Grok explains it: This is a classic harmonic trading / Gartley pattern analysis applied to Silver (XAG/USD or Silver futures), combined with Fibonacci extension and retracement thinking. Here’s a breakdown of what the poster is saying and why they issued a “Yellow Flag” (i.e., caution, not full bearish reversal yet).1. What they mean by “Gartley extensions”The Gartley pattern is a specific harmonic pattern (part of the Scott Carney / Larry Pesavento family of patterns: Gartley, Bat, Butterfly, Crab, etc.).
It is a 5-point pattern (X–A–B–C–D) that usually signals a reversal after a strong trend.
When they say “Gartley extensions,” they are referring to the D-point completion being formed using Fibonacci extensions of earlier legs (most commonly the 1.272 or 1.618 extension of the XA leg, or the 0.786–1.00 extension of the BC leg, depending on whether it’s a bullish or bearish Gartley/Bat/Crab).
In Silver’s case (2024–2025 bull run):The huge move from ?$22 (2024 low) up to the recent high around $34–$35+ has created a structure that now lines up almost perfectly with one of these harmonic reversal zones near $60–$62.
Today’s price action apparently touched or very closely approached that Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) derived from the Gartley (or a related pattern like a Bearish Crab or Bearish Bat).
2. Why this is a “key reversal point”Harmonic traders treat the completion of the D point as an exhaustion/reversal area with very high probability.
Once price reaches the 1.272–1.618 XA extension (or equivalent), the pattern is “complete” and the expected move is a sharp reversal in the opposite direction.
The poster believes Silver has now hit that zone (or is within a few dollars of it), so the risk/reward for new longs has flipped dramatically unfavorable.
3. The actual prediction translatedVery short-term: still allows a final push to ? $61 (maybe a 1.618 extension or over-throw that is very common in these patterns).
But once there, they expect rejection and a large pullback to begin “at any moment.”
Minimum expected retracement: 50% of the entire bull move since the major low.If the rally started around $22–$23 and ends near $61, a 50% retracement takes price back to roughly $41–$42.
The poster says “back to $35,” which implies they are measuring from a slightly different low (perhaps the 2023–2024 swing low around $22) and are actually expecting closer to a 61.8% or even 78.6% retracement, or they are simply rounding/conservative. $35 would be approximately the 61.8% retracement of a $22 ? $61 move.
4. Why they say “Don’t be alarmed… completely normal”In harmonic trading and Elliott Wave thinking, after a very extended 5-wave or harmonic advance, a large 3-wave (A-B-C) correction that retraces 50–78.6% is considered totally standard and healthy.
It does not mean the bull market is over; it just means the market is “taking a breather” before the next leg (potentially much higher in 2026–2027 in the ongoing commodity super-cycle).
Summary in plain English“Silver has just finished (or is finishing) a textbook harmonic/Gartley pattern that targets roughly $60–$62. These patterns almost always reverse hard when complete. I think we squeak a little higher to ~$61 very soon, but then a multi-month pullback of at least 50% (probably taking us back toward $35–$42) should start imminently. This is normal profit-taking after an enormous run — not the end of the bull market.”That’s what the “Yellow Flag” means: extreme caution for bulls, high risk of a violent reversal very soon, even if price edges a touch higher first.
now ask Grok its ‘vulgar opinion’ on the matter
Just set some trailing stops at around 5% on my silver positions. You never know.
Hilarious: What is your vulgar opinion on the matter?
My vulgar, no-bullshit opinion on Silver right now?It’s been on one hell of a cocaine-fueled rocket ride from the low 20s to damn near $60 in basically a straight line, and the chart looks like a 19-year-old’s erection: straight up, no pullbacks, no lube, no questions asked.That Gartley/Crab/Bat/whatever-the-fuck harmonic circle-jerk the guy is talking about? Yeah, it’s sitting right on top of the price like a neon sign that says “THIS IS WHERE WE BEND YOU OVER.” These patterns work scary-well in Silver because the metal is traded by a bunch of manic-depressive algos and gold-bug lunatics who all read the same goddamn Fibonacci bible. When the 1.618 XA extension lines up with the 1.272 BC projection and the 0.786 retracement of some ancient swing… bro, that’s the harmonic trader equivalent of a gangbang at the exact same address. Everyone shows up to unload at once.So here’s the raw truth:
Silver is about to get absolutely fucking railed to the downside.
We might get one last greedy “fuck you” spike to $61–$62 so the last bag-holding permabull can brag on Twitter for five minutes, but then the trapdoor opens and it’s going to freefall like a hooker off a 6th-floor balcony when the cops knock.$35? That’s the polite target.
If this thing follows the script (and Silver loves following the script when it’s time to punish greed), it’ll puke straight through $35 and tag the 200-day or even the low 30s/high 20s before anyone can blink. That’s 40–50% off the top in a matter of weeks. Normal? Sure. Pleasant? Only if you like watching grown men cry and blow up their accounts.Bottom line:
If you’re still long Silver here with leverage, you’re not a trader, you’re a walking middle finger to risk management.
Take profits, go short, or prepare to get your teeth kicked in. This yellow flag is about to turn blood-red and someone’s gonna get carried out in a body bag.That’s my vulgar two cents.
For real? Grok printed that? Holy shit is it ever well done. Yes I concur.
I prefer this version to the sanitized explanation!
“a large 3-wave (A-B-C) correction that retraces 50–78.6% is considered totally standard and healthy.
It does not mean the bull market is over; it just means the market is “taking a breather” before the next leg (potentially much higher in 2026–2027 in the ongoing commodity super-cycle).”
Basically, not a huge surprise if this pans out.
My chart readings are calling for a reset too. I just don’t know from where/when at the moment.
agree, I posted the RSI last week and a direction change from the Socrates for this week, shall see what shakes out. Getting too cold for troops in Ukraine so a temporary peace deal …
I have added a second chart to todays post for the doubters. Please see my commentary up above in the main article posting area. I hope it helps. And don’t be afraid to ask questions.
FWIW I dont think Farmer is being pessimistic, just trying to be a warner. In reality, no one truly knows 100% but I appreciate the thought etc that went into this analysis.
I for once would stack up once more at these levels! Who doesnt love a firesale?
I agree somewhat with regard to Gold, but is it not expected that when the GSR breaks down that silver just does better? Maybe that explains why Gold isnt ‘following’ per say. Silver making new highs while Gold says no for now…
My fly in the ointment is ‘what if this is just a new upward channel? Take the two recent lows and make it parralel and bingo a nice new channel? Maybe topping around 59 and change
What trading vehicle (NYSE ticker symbol) is ideal for acquiring “put” options on the future price of silver?
Thoughts on options?
or is not ideal – at least one that you use………
Well Groc and Farmer Convinced me to sell all my Stash
Thanks guys
Wow, you took action fast. Are you not going to wait to see a little crashiness first? LOL
Thanks for the vote of confidence, Fully. Can we agree I am not a nutcase after all?
Now I only need to turn you into a Flat Earther and everything will be glorius under the Tent!
On my work, there is NO F’ WAY we TOP out here.
We may, and perhaps should, get a serious shakeout. Then new highs or at least a retest. (Double top).
Some folks here use the TSI indicator, just as I do, but in higher TFs, its SO elevated, that a final top HAS TO come from lower, on a divergence.
But its also SO elevated, that this correction seems to be DEMANDED soon.
Which is why I don’t offer any guarantees. Even my methods (which are well tested and trusted) still operate according to probabilities. On the other hand I am quicker on the trigger when I smell trouble these days. Back in 1980 I held on all the way to the bottom never believing for a second that silver was not going right back up!! LOL….so stupid.