Timing
We have seen the opening salvo for all hell to break loose with last week’s bank failures. Currently, we are in a period of RELATIVE calm. Based on a number of factors, I would say the window before total chaos sets in would be somewhere between the FED decision on Wednesday and the end of the month, Friday March 31st. The FED decision (likely a pause) which would be a decisive PIVOT as posted here before the FED, FDIC & treasury rescue plan was hatched, is an obvious catalyst. The charts and trading action in stocks, currencies, metals etc. says the best case scenario would be that markets might not go extreme until after the month(and quarter) ends. Things are so precarious, it is better to err on the side of caution and be in metals and out of the stock market, before then, but don’t be surprised or disappointed if nothing major happens until we get into April. Metals, especially gold, seem to indicate people don’t want to go into another weekend without at least some physical metal, just in case. A sprint to $2000 gold today, would not shock me.
April 10th retest support … see Armstrong ECM post.