Loading ...Nasdaq 100 vs TLT: Bullish Breakout and Backtest
Worth looking at in conjunction with the Nasdaq 100 vs Gold ratio. Here we look at the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 vs the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT
Similar to $NDX:$GOLD, we see a breakout and backtest above a long term inverse head and shoulders neckline. Ratio objective from the 2009 crash was met in mid 2018.
As long as the backtest in $NDX:TLT remains valid and the ratio sustains above the 13 year neckline going forward, I’m long term bullish the Nasdaq 100. -Harry
The breakouts on many of your $NDX ratio charts appear they could be the head of head-n-shoulders topping patterns … thoughts?
Yes, that could happen! If these backtests all fail and the ratios fall below their key multi-year support lines, yes I would see the current breakouts as heads of the next head-n-shoulders topping pattern. After falling below the key support lines, the ratios could backtest them which would form the right shoulders.
If the NDX ratios fail their backtests and fall below support lines on these charts, I would rotate NDX related positions into higher exposure of bonds, precious metals, US Dollar ETFs.
On target, this is quite possibly becoming as Fully puts it a “sneaky bull”, which would literally shock many long in the general markets continuing to buy the dips. Per Plunger and the Dow Theory, the bear market has already been confirmed. 2019 should be interesting.