Loading ...IS THIS WHAT TRUMP AND COMP ARE UP TO ?
Most people have figured out that Iran was very unlikely to just say “The Strait is wide open!! Sorry!! Please don’t bomb my power plants!”
What always trips people up is that they assume Trump doesn’t know that. That he actually believes the IRGC will just bend over backwards.
It’s a common mistake at lower levels of chess. Assessing your own options, comparatively, is the easy part.
But assessing your opponent’s options accurately? That’s the hard part.
Trump is extremely good at that. It’s why he’s so good in negotiations and foreign policy. (Aka negotiations with guns and bombs)
Most analysts aren’t very good at that.
They aren’t looking at the board from Trump’s perspective.
Let’s do that here.
You issue that ultimatum. You have to assume that you’ll have to make good on your threat.
You bomb the power plants using the graphene bombs that will disrupt electricity for the next 24 or so hours.
Why the hell do you want the lights shut off for 24 hours?
Most people assume it’s either neutral or negative to regime change. They assume that because it’s the opposite of how we conducted ourselves in instances like the Arab Spring or that Ukraine kerfuffle.
But the Arab Spring approach was always off the table. They banned the internet. We have ways around that, but nowhere near enough circumvention to actually coordinate a revolution.
So, how the hell were we planning to do it?
I’d be using the living hell out of CIA Operations Officers, MOSSAD Officers, and probably even ODA’s. (A contingent of highly trained Special Forces.)
In order to give those guys operational freedom, I’d have made sure to disassemble the IRGC until they were a scattered mess of loosely organized soldiers that lack the capacity for robust counterintelligence.
Oh, right, that’s what we’ve been doing from Day 1 of Epic Fury.
These guys would be able to communicate with each other even after the lights go out. At least within their various units and networks.
But once the lights go out?
The regime loses its technological advantage over the insurgents.
The scattered mess of the IRGC will no longer be able to communicate with nearly enough precision to defend themselves from several attacks simultaneously.
Can we field several attacks simultaneously?
Of course! That’s how the CIA largely runs intelligence networks nowadays.
We’ve essentially borrowed the best pieces of how terror cells operate.
On-the-ground autonomy. Everyone is structuring and planning a separate attack that no central command will have to green light.
They’ve been given a collective go signal.
When the lights go out. You go.
They’ve been given 48 hours to make final preparations for whatever plans they have in store.
They’ll be given a 24 hour window where the enemy is blind, deaf, and dumb.
At that point, the regime will have to defend itself from a thoroughly established ground force made predominantly from the protestors they’d have wished to kill.
And then, as they dig in their heels for the fight right in front of their face?
Tripoli descends upon their flank and we seize Kharg Island, cutting off the IRGC’s ability to fund its own defense.
Derek