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SO GROK HOW IS CHRISTMAS SPENING IN THE USA LOOKING ?

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   December 19, 2025 - 9:35 pm at 9:35 pm

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   Christmas Spending Predictions for 2025 in the USA
   In 2025, Christmas spending in the USA is projected to reach approximately $1 trillion, marking the first time in history that the holiday shopping season will surpass this significant milestone. This prediction reflects a modest growth of about 4% from the estimated $976 billion in 2024, despite ongoing economic challenges such as inflation and heightened consumer caution.

   Key Factors Influencing Spending
   Consumer Sentiment and Economic Conditions:
   Economic unease is affecting consumer confidence, particularly among younger demographics like Gen Z, who express increased concerns about job security and financial stability. Many consumers are adjusting their spending habits, leading to a cautious yet somewhat optimistic outlook for the holiday season.
   Inflation and Spending Behavior:
   Despite a general sentiment of caution, there has been a notable 7% increase in projected gift spending compared to earlier in the year. The average expected spend per consumer is now around $770, reflecting a shift where consumers are willing to stretch their budgets, albeit with constraints.
   Generational Differences:
   Spending trends vary significantly across generations. For instance:
   Baby Boomers are planning to spend more, averaging $858.
   Gen Z is also increasing their spending to about $622, largely adapting to higher prices.
   In contrast, Millennials and Gen X are pulling back their anticipated spending.
   Shopping Patterns and Preferences:
   Gift cards are expected to be the most popular purchase, preferred by around 50% of consumers, potentially leading to a spending surge in January when these are redeemed.
   Consumers are increasingly using digital platforms for shopping, with the average expected spending in Q4 anticipated to rise from $7,591 to $7,834.
   Summary Table of Predictions and Trends
   Factor Details
   Expected Total Spending $1 trillion
   Year-over-Year Growth 4% increase from 2024’s $976 billion
   Average Gift Spending Approximately $770, up from $721 earlier this year
   Generational Highlights – Baby Boomers: $858- Gen Z: $622- Millennials: $843 (down from $921)
   Most Popular Purchase Gift cards (50% preference)
   Q4 Spending Increase From $7,591 to $7,834
   Conclusion
   The 2025 Christmas shopping season is characterized by both challenges and opportunities. While consumers are navigating a complex economic landscape marked by inflation and uncertainty, there appears to be a growing willingness to spend modestly on holiday celebrations. The notable rise in e-commerce and the persistent popularity of gift cards may further shape the holiday shopping experience this year.

2. Fullgoldcrown says:

   December 19, 2025 - 9:42 pm at 9:42 pm

   NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION CRISTMAS PREDICTIONS

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   National Retail Federation (NRF) 2025 Holiday Season PredictionsThe National Retail Federation (NRF) released its annual holiday forecast on November 6, 2025, projecting a strong but moderated performance for the winter holiday season (defined as November 1 through December 31). This excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail.Key PredictionsRetail Sales Growth: Expected to increase 3.7% to 4.2% year-over-year compared to 2024.
   Total Holiday Sales: $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion — surpassing $1 trillion for the first time in history (up from $976 billion in 2024, which grew 4.3%).
   Per-Person Spending (from separate NRF/Prosper Insights survey): Average of $890.49 on gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items — the second-highest in the survey’s 23-year history.
   Seasonal Hiring: Retailers expected to add 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers (down from 442,000 in 2024, reflecting a softer labor market).

   Context and RationaleNRF’s forecast is based on economic modeling incorporating factors like consumer spending, disposable income, employment, wages, inflation, and historical retail data. Despite challenges such as persistent inflation, new tariffs, trade uncertainty, and a prolonged federal government shutdown, NRF remains optimistic:Consumers are described as “cautious in sentiment” but “fundamentally strong,” prioritizing holiday traditions and gifts.
   Shoppers are trading down for value and deals, with retailers absorbing costs where possible to protect budgets.
   Early indicators (as of mid-December 2025) show November sales growth aligning with the forecast, with strong year-over-year gains reported via the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.

   As of December 19, 2025, NRF has expressed continued confidence in meeting these projections, with no major updates or revisions announced. The season is on track for record nominal spending, though real growth (adjusted for inflation) is more modest. Final official data will be available in early 2026.