🙂

Well, I said Friday’s close would be important and instead of closing on a positive note, we are getting more mixed signals.

If silver can hold onto $16.80 into the close it will keep hope alive.

The disappointing thing for me was the suboptimal recovery in the silver miners this week (barring a miracle turnaround today).  I was hoping the individual names, like AXU and AG could recapture their weekly cloud support, but it looks like they have failed this week.   Therefore, for me a consolidation nearer to last week’s lows is still on the table.  This could even possibly play out into late summer/early fall if they decide they want to consolidate closer to last week’s lows.

Basically, absolutely anything can happen in the short run with silver and silver miners.

Gold and gold miners do look so much better technically for now.  GDX in particular may have more work to do and may decide to test the 50 WMA again before the consolidation phase ends.  Such a consolidation could coincide with a correction in gold.

Ultimately, it is going to depend on where $gold is in its intermediate cycle.  If it has already topped, I would guess that silver will actually make a lower low at some point.

I’m signing off for a while, likely until July/August, when I think things will be much much clearer.  I’m a long term bull, but I am not sure how this plays out precisely in the near term.  I do expect at some point within the next year, to year and a half, silver and commodities will take off, and by all means it could come much much sooner, even imminently.  The next FOMC meeting should provide some entertainment.

Good luck and hang tight.