Looking Down – Getting Mentally Prepared
I’m a little bit disappointed we didn’t get closer to $1400 on this latest rally, and there may still be a possibility we reach higher in the coming few weeks. However, I’m expecting the long running history of late December lows to take us through a very frustrating period. I’m sure there will be a lot of pessimism around and bearish articles. The dollar will, no doubt stage some sort of ‘relief rally’. I haven’t looked at dollar resistance levels yet, but it may begin to feel like we’re backing a loser here in the tent. If you look at the charts below, you can see that in the grand scheme of things, a drop to $1200 would be nothing out of the ordinary, and give us a higher high. That crucial symmetrical triangle has one last role to play – to draw price to it’s apex before the rubber band finally catapults price to $1550, with all that stored potential energy. That’s my working theory – we need to be mentally prepared for this. Now lets see how it plays out 🙂
Thanks for this Northstar. That is a fantastic Spotting.
Very Simple and very well presented. Something to keep an eye on for sure.
This chart is a MUST Keep
Thanks Fully. I’ve said this a lot lately, but the next few months will be very ‘interesting.
If you’re working hypothesis is correct, that would add fuel to the argument that the S&P and the Nasdaq are nearing the catapult stage from here through spring/summer 2018. Having said that, that 15 year base on the Nasdaq and the breakout in 2016 keeps drawing my attention. That base is so large coupled with a bonfire breakout that it should take years (not just months) before it tops out. Just keep wondering although the PMs are likely to move higher over time whether the the conventional markets will move much higher and faster than most expect over the short and medium term making them the place to be. What say you? Care to postulate where the Nasdaq may be by 2022? Always look forward to your post NS.
The stock markets are getting into nosebleed territory with more and more metrics pointing to an imminent top. Monetary madness will exhaust itself at some point, but I have no real idea when. The longer this goes on the worse it will be though.
“the S&P and the Nasdaq are nearing the catapult stage from here through spring/summer 2018.”
Yup. Hard as it may be to believe, that looks quite likely to me as well as I review my LT charts.
I used the word “blowoff” in the assessment I shared with my colleagues this weekend.
And yes, down into Dec for the PMs looks probable too. But I’m repeating myself.
Yep. Symmetry says we dont b/o for 6-12 months. I am totally on board w/ this. I absolutely believe there is still some torture coming for PM enthusiasts.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=408811
Thanks for the comment Gary. More pain ahead by the looks of it.
Thanks, Northstar.
Maybe the hesitation in PMs will temporarily bring down GOLD and then they may both rally together. That’s what it looks like to me based on Hamilton’s latest chart , but, hey, what do I know?
Or maybe an 1987 type (God forbid) iightning bolt that brings everything down temporarily over Sept.-Nov.
Just throwing out how it could be IMVHO.
Cheers.
I, of course, meant
the hesitation in the PM stocks.
Sorry.
A 1987 type ‘lightning bolt’ is certainly not out of the question MM. Markets aren’t in a ‘normal’ state at the moment, so the pressure will have to release at some point.