COT Numbers – Just in
The commercials continue to short this rally by increasing their net short position by 10% (20,000+ contracts). Should see a pullback next week.
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26th is my turn…shall see
I have no idea about COTs, but What if they have to cover short positions?
As Siri says…
Have you seen the DXY?
I agree normally that is how it goes but if the DXY continues to plummet (currently below 200 dma) then they have a FREAKING HUGE problem!
Commercials are just the guys who sell gold.
They are always short because If a Spec wants to buy gold futures contracts someone has to sell it to them
Its not like a stock market where there is a fixed number of shares and traders buy and sell from eachother.
If Specs want to buy en masse then “commercials” by extention have to sell to them….basically the limit of open interest is infinite.
When the specs want to sell…who buys ?…the commercials close their shorts and sell the contracts back
They are basically like the “House”. They are a reservoir providing liquidity and making money each way on the spread
You wanna bet ? they take your bet. Then you cash in your chips and on it goes.
COTS is just about Spec interest in a particular market.
Specs want in ? So the Commercials are obliged to “sell” to them…and vica versa
What’s in it for the Commercials ?
Hedging for one….some of them are producers and need to lock in price
But also some make their living off the spread …like stock market makers.
IMHO COTs are useless for trading decisions.
Anybody ever make any money following the COTs ?
Not me.
In short, I personally have not found them useful.
Years ago (including before I had a computer) I would dutifully record the numbers for several markets and look at various ratios, creating different graphs. I never was able to get much out of this activity other than avoiding things I should have been doing that I wanted to avoid. Like many of us I suppose I have looked at websites of people who with varying degrees of emphasis note the COTs of precious metals. I haven’t personally been able to benefit all too much from their work. I have not studied them diligently but have the impression that 1 or 2 of them possibly could often be correct. When I’m about to go against some of the rules of thumb (such as buying a Au stock when I happen to have read that commercials are short Au and small speculators are long) I maybe maybe maybe think an extra time before going ahead, but I don’t take the time to search for the COT data. There are many ways the COT data can probably be misleading. For example, much of the world’s PM trading is not done on the Comex. In my case, I am usually timing a purchase or sale of an individual company for the long term, so a relatively short term move of the gold or silver price is not so important anyway. Looking at the COT report for me is maybe like looking to see what color the clouds are to determine where to set the thermostat. But maybe other people find COT data really useful.
Does that mean that the commercials are not really sellers, they are just passing on supply from someone else like a miner of a central bank that’s selling? In other words, they are just market makers?
How do the COT numbers compare with those at the peaks in gold in 2008, 2011 and 2016?
The Commercials supply the futures contracts when required
They make money on the spread when they sell and when they buy back ( when the Spec sells)
Its a zero sum game
Spec Longs minus Spec Shorts = Commercial Shorts.
The Longer the Specs are the Shorter the Commercials are ( by definition)
see the video Jordan posted…he is the best at deciphering COTs