Loading ...SPX Fractal Update
Here is an update on my SPX Wedge watch. I took some nice profits on all my short positions today (with the exception of my APPL Puts which are still underwater) around 10am just as they were all hitting my price objectives near the top of all my short term channels (i.e. as stocks were bottoming) on my real time trade station monitoring.
I use the same channels on multiple time scales (Daily, 60 min and 5 min). When I see something on the 5 min, I confirm the larger pattern on the 60 min and Daily to ensure I am not reacting to noise.
The IC Low is still ahead of us in the late June to mid July timeframe, however, so I may reload my shorts later. If my Fractal continues to play out, we should move back up to test my top Red line where I will go short again.
Second chart shows a 10min close up on the price action on SPY and the 3rd, a 5min close up on my SDS Short. Easy to spot the Fractal turns in real time.
I don’t feel we have a replica of last year’s Nov-Dec action in the S&P. Here’s a link to a SPY chart I posted here on 11/19 which suggested a weak internal structure back to known resistance. I haven’t touched the chart since last Nov. The current structure does not show the gappiness of the rise, it shows healthy volume/accumulation, and the structure is currently in the form of left leaning bullish flags as opposed to right leaning bearish flags we had late last year. Sure prices could go down from here but it’s not as a good of a set up as late last year to be short.
http://schrts.co/ugwJlh
Hi Mark, I respect your option on this and I am open to being wrong (no guarantees). That said, remember that “Time” is a factor here, from an Intermediate Cycle standpoint, just as it was in late December. In Bear markets IC’s tend to get shorter. The Jan IC Low was 5 months from the Aug 2015 Low. If I add 5 months from mid Jan, I get to mid to late June with perhaps another month into July.
If price moves back up towards my red line, I will short again as I see it as a very low risk trade as I will stop out with a small loss if price breaks the line. Just sayin…