Loading ...Angry and Aggressive
So is the analyst who said to wait for a correction in PM markets!I have never seen so much aggressivity as in this period, even serious and very valid guys like Gary Savage (who was the best to call the bottom in December) or Clive Maund (and many others) continue to say not to enter this market and they say it out loud with anger.
I really am a bit confused,probably the only oasis of “tranquility” it seems to be this site……
They are pissed that they aren’t participating.
Rambus and SKI gold are the only timers you need.
I am 90% certain we have at least 1 more month to go of gains. I am buying breakouts. NG broke out Friday. several others broke out this week. I will be scouring for other candidates as well. GSS has potential as it didn’t participate this week due to a financing. But it is ready on the next up move to break upwards.
You’re right they are both reliable.
I own GSS and hope to increase my position as well as in BCM.V PLG.TO and MSV.TO 🙂
Of the 3, I still don’t have BCM. That sucker looks insane on the weekly and I cant pull the trigger. The others I am long into from lower levels. Plenty others to ride.
I didnt know about this one until you posted its earlier BO. But I bought the correction and think its flagging to go again soon. Thanks for posting it, BTW.
Very pissed it seems. Many point the finger at Armstrong’s guidance last November. I was at the conference and the mantra was Dollar up/gold down into the second Benchmark/April. In retrospect it is crystal clear that he was looking for a sub $1000 blow out in terms of price and concluded that by the December benchmark, (his own target in terms of TIME) that was not going to happen. So he “pushed” everything out till April. Ego?
When the markets bottomed aggressively, do you think he claimed victory in December? Nooo…he just let people think he was correct for the next benchmark. He did post some blurb at year end that gold wasn’t “quite as weak as it seems.” No more explanation than that.
I don’t know what part of generational low in terms of miner valuation he refused to acknowledge, but what a disservice to his followers. Even Socrates said the miners had bottomed!
He convinced so many that the miners would follow gold. Fortunately, I saw the light in February, but many trader friends waited 5 years for this and missed it.
Take a look at his recent articles. If the Euro rises into June and Britain exits the EU in June, it’s clear he is thinking the dollar will rise causing gold to crash. But will it? It will push the dollar up, but I think Gold could rise with dollar. A closing over the 2015 high at 1307/09 would be safety for us.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/month-end-closing/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/are-the-markets-create-a-huge-false-move-for-the-next-2-years/
I’m hanging on with a large chunk of $ in about 35 – 40 Jrs at any given time. Its scary for me but think I well understand the potential/ risk. Luckily so many great posters keep us focused. I do admit to selling some of them / portions of them on pops just because of the nervousness. There are many to choose from so no need to chase, just moving on to those unloved and the ones most likely to start a new upleg. Its the best I can muster. Those guys like Gary S. and Clive are the ones supporting the rally wether they like it or not. Almost no one believes it can go higher which is just the way we want it. The combined following of all those guys is probably pretty large.
The market chews gurus up and spits them out…we are seeing this.
I just stick with market principles and try to determine where we are and then act accordingly. If you are confused, I suggest reading my piece on bull markets and focus on Phase I. That’s where we are, and one should select his strategy for phase I. That is by the way buy at the market and hold…. for now.
All this thrashing around by self proclaimed GURUs has been amusing to me
Plunger,I read it often,it’s a sort of a bull market bible to me! 🙂
I said I’m confused because these gurus are extreme,they said that a bull market is born and at the same time they tells you to sell because the market has gone up too fast and a correction is needed,but if we really are in a bull market the best thing to do should be to sit tight and not trade in and out.
Anyway I’ve never feel such an aggressivity like this time,probably is part of the wall of worry !
Well, there flaw is not knowing the critical element of market history. This is where knowing the great analysts of old is so valuable. The Robert Rhea’s (1930’s) William P. Hamilton’s (1910-1929) Offer us such superior guidance, but one must be willing to study them. Today’s “gurus” see a bull market, but they don’t know what one looks like!
Cool as a Cucumber knights!- Sit tight
The one point everyone seems to be missing is, neither gold nor silver has really done anything fantastic yet. Just the miners have. Yes….miners supposedly lead the metals, but that is yet to be seen.
Maybe the miners are just benefiting from the dollar drop and cheaper oil which makes mining less expensive. Also, a rotation away from over bought everything else, into the most over sold asset class…the miners.
We really don’t have to know why. The equities are a discounting mechanism to elements and events which lie in the future.
I actually had never read anything from Gary Savage before this evening. I went to his webpage and looked at his video from April 15th. HUI was at 198 at the time (233 now) and he said to absolutely not enter the market here because he GUARANTEED you would get an entry back at the 175 consolidation area soon. So his followers have been waiting for 15 days now….I wonder how much higher prices need to run before they finally get exhausted and enter the market. My charts suggests a pullback at this point wont be deeper than the 209 breakout.
For your amusement: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/04/wait-gold-move-correction.html
Yes,but at the same time he was one of the very few who called the exact bottom in PM.
And he is convinced that we are in a secular bulla market,I think the problem with him is that he trades only etf’s and other speculative instruments and not stocks.
I do not think he would go well with Spock 🙂
For those of you who don’t know I was essentially thrown off his site way back in Feb 2013 for insisting that we were in a bear market against Gary’s proclamations of being in a bull market. He insisted at the time that we were in a correction to a bull market only and he was advocating buying Silver LEAPS and rolling them over at expiration (seriously). He later revealed that he had half of his personal wealth in these silver LEAPS.
He kept a stiff upper lip and never tipped his hat as to how much he damaged himself, but one has to know he was creamed.
We all make mistakes, but these types are inexcusable
Anyone who puts half of his net worth into silver options simply has a gambling addiction. That is reckless to the point of needing treatment. Do his subscribers know this about him? He would likely be broke w/o the subscription fees.
Well, ok since you asked, I remember this very clearly because I knew he had to be getting killed, but stubbornly kept tells his flock to roll them over into the next years expiration even though they were probably only worth maybe 10% of what they once were. On a side note one day he admitted his 50% stake, but never mentioned it again to my knowledge. After he folded the trade I recall out of left field he offered everyone to renew their subscription at a discount rate.
It was obvious to me it was intended to reload his personal trading account….Sheesh
Until this evening I never had never visited Clive’s site either. Wow…..
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
OOPs
Hui has 25 to 50% upside from here in the near term. We are only 3 months into this melt up. The slope of the rise is most kind off of the 2008 low. Just be patient and ride it. When gold hits 1400s I would consider taking more speculative money off the table. But don’t trade out of your core positions.
these are excellent examples of “expert group think”….and getting it very very wrong.
I see that even Avi who was advocating pretty accurately to start scaling into PMs last fall reduced his exposure to 20% position in miners the week ending Fri April 22nd.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gilburt/gilburt042816.html
This just shows you how dangerous it is trying to finesse every entry and exit as a new trend takes hold. I think he’s getting too cute with things and will end up costing his subscribers in the long run. Maybe’s he’s afraid that no one will pay for a trading service that instructs people to hold for the next few years 😉 This comment of his in the article says it all and his strategy to beat the GDX is failing as he tries to be smarter than the markets:
So in one week he already missed out on a 15% move in the GDX. That will be tough to make up. His approach to trading is foolhearty and seems designed to keep a paying audience captive day-to-day.
Another incentive to just hold is the capitals gains tax. I’m probably similar to most of you where my long-term rate is less than half of my short-term cap gains tax rate.