The USD has started a new short term Trading Cycle here but I am not sure if we are in a new Intermediate Cycle (IC) just yet as the longer term weekly count is not clear to me (see chart). Normally we see IC lows in the USD every 5-6 months so I thought that the low in Feb was the IC Low.

If Feb was an IC Low then it is too early for the USD to make another one here. So if Feb was the IC Low then we should expect the USD to roll over on or before day 9-12 (i.e. make a lower High and move into a lower low).

If this is the IC Low then we should make a Higher High than the late March High. Even if it is a new Intermediate Cycle here, my expectations are that my Red down trend line will contain any upside move into this Summer.

Screenshot 2016-04-13 16.44.08