Loading ...NatGas 3 Year Cycle Update
I posted previously on the potential for NatGas 3 Year Cycle low here. In the first chart below I mention that most commodities have a 3 year cycle low and this is somewhat misleading as many have 4 or 5 year cycles but NatGas definitely has a 3 year cycle low.
So, if I am correct that is is potentially a 3 Year Cycle Low for Natty, lets look at some Fractal patterns from the last two 3 year lows (early 2012 and late 2009 respectively). I’m not the best EW guy within the RC Forum, but these two sure look like fairly strong 5 wave uptrend patterns out of the last two 3 year lows. Note the Pendant consolidation pattern at wave 2 followed by strong wave 3 breakout.
Makes you go Hmmmm…
Note that the pattern in the next chart could actually be a weaker 5 wave into an initial top in late Oct 2009 where I have #3 labeled.
Added: Here is today’s chart. Perhaps the 150ema will create a wave 4 dip giving traders a chance to get on board before a wave 5 surge. Hmmmm….
Strong move, no doubt.
“Pendant consolidation pattern at wave 2” Prohibited pattern for a second wave. Triangles can only appear as the second last waves in a structure, like a 4 or B wave. (They can appear in complex correctives also.) That said, I haven’t seen a good count for natgas that I’m favoring here.
My work does not support a final bottom. But it wouldn’t surprise me if we merely retested these lows at some point this spring to form a double bottom. And if we do get new lows at some point, they shouldn’t go much deeper than we’ve seen. One reason I’m looking at things this way is that UNG’s weekly and monthly RSIs got deeply embedded at the recent lows and final bottoms are seldom formed that way.
Thanks for the feedback on EW structures. What are your thoughts on the Pendant Fractals at the last two 3 year lows in 2009 and 2012?
Both appear to be at least mark the half way move out of a significant low.
I think you are saying that these Pendants could be “B” waves as part of an A, B, C correction?
If I don’t answer, its because I’m not getting email notifications on replies. I get them on response to my new posts, but never on my replies to initial posts by others.
BUT .. to answer your question … yes, by elimination …..so that’s a part of my thinking as well. EW doesn’t get great reception here … but its hard for me to cobble an impulsive structure out of this move from the lows. We could be seeing a larger double zig zag … abc X abc or some such animal. So the b wave pennant is not necessarily a sign this move was topping back there. I think we do go even higher still … but there’s also another down leg coming. The entire move down from 2014 highs isn’t the easiest to count. Don’t know what pendant fractals are, but the 2012 “lows” were merely interim lows … as price has now shown us. Jury’s out on Dec 2015 and will be for a while, but I suspect it will be too. I did catch the precise top in 2008 or so (post Katrina), but oh my did I get out too early on those shorts. Knew nothing of fracking back then.
Gregor has a fine take on the recent moves here.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/40064/elliott-wave-analysis-on-gbpusd-and-natural-gas Second half of post.
Assuming we get the 5th wave up, this increases the chances for a final bottom off the lows. But by no means certifies it.
We could still be in an ABC correction, if it plays out as 5-3-5 zig zag. And ZZs are the most common form Further validation comes if B makes a higher low.
Assuming we see 5 of A, the C wave up should be stronger than this A wave, so we’ve got a long ways to go on this, correction or not.
And LT here
https://elliottcharts.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/natural-gas-monthly.png No shorter term counts offered