• A closure of the Strait of Hormuz through August raises the risk of an economic downturn that comes close to the scale of the Great Recession in 2008, according to Rapidan Energy Group.
  • The advisory firm’s base case assumes the waterway reopens in July, resulting in an average oil demand reduction of 2.6 million barrels a day and the spot-market price for benchmark Brent crude peaking near $130 a barrel over the summer.
  • A delay until August would deepen the third-quarter supply deficit to roughly 6 million barrels a day, as inventories approach operationally challenging levels.

The advisory firm’s base case assumes the waterway reopens in July, resulting in an average oil demand reduction of 2.6 million barrels a day and the spot-market price for benchmark Brent crude peaking near $130 a barrel over the summer.

https://archive.md/lXE9o#selection-2069.0-2069.237