In 1980, when the Iran-Iraq war disrupted global oil supply, the volume lost was around 4 million barrels per day. The current Hormuz blockade is running at roughly 20 million barrels per day.

Even in the most optimistic scenario – ceasefire tomorrow, everybody shakes hands – the Maersk CEO noted it takes at least ten days after a ceasefire for tanker insurance to clear. Then mine-clearing: Iran has been laying mines in the Strait, and removing them will take weeks to months. Then tankers reposition, loads getting secured, and finally the flow resumes. The oil futures curve is pricing step five as if it follows step one with a 48-hour lag. It cannot physically happen on that timeline.

And Iran isn’t just shooting wildly at targets. Yesterday, Fujairah – the world-class bunkering hub sitting outside the Strait, the bypass everyone assumed would soften the blow – has been deliberately targeted. Tehran isn’t just closing Hormuz. It’s also closing the workarounds. One by one. Iran got fed up and decided to take down the imposed sanctions one way or another. And USrael just gave them the ultimate excuse.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/everything-everywhere-all-once

 

Quite the article — very long – covers MANY topics and then draws conclusions as they merge together — interesting opinions — weekend reading perhaps – 20 minutes if not just skimming!