My Take On the Bloomberg & GSCI Commodity Index Rebalancing
The indices are based solely on the Silver futures contracts traded on the Comex. I wondered if the commodity funds that track these two indices would be able to front run the lowering of the percentage of silver positions that they are required to hold. If you managed those funds, and wanted to lock in the gains when silver was up at $83 on Tues. but you needed to keep the ratios at the current levels until they get lowered next week, was there a way to do so? I believe there is, and many funds probably took advantage of it, knowing all the publicity about the rebalancing and the fact that the riggers were going to use the rebalancing window to knock down the silver price. They have knocked down the price yesterday and today, but I believe the worst is over. The Comex has daily and weekly options on their silver futures contracts. That means any fund that had to reduce their exposure during the rollover window, could use options(say writing in the money calls that were due to expire, and having their position called away etc.) There are probably many other strategies that could have been used to accomplish the position size reduction without having to wait for the last two or three days to do so. Over these next few days, up to and including the 14th, if silver doesn’t keep dropping, or better yet, if it starts to rise going into that timeframe, then many of the funds involved, probably used such techniques in advance. For stackers, the selloff is just one more good buying opportunity. For holders and buyers of miners, at least the two or three that I follow, have held up extremely well during the first two days of this event, and I would not be surprised if they continue to make new ATH’s even before the rollover window closes. I Googled to see if the Comex has daily and weekly options on their silver futures contracts. This was the response. “Yes, CME Group offers weekly options on Silver futures (SI), with expiries available every day of the business week (Monday-Friday), complementing the standard monthly options and allowing traders to manage short-term risk with precise hedging around key economic events. These weekly options provide flexibility for managing immediate exposure to silver price movements.
- Daily Expiries: Options expire on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, with Tuesday and Thursday expiries added in 2024 to cover all business days.
- Purpose: They offer a precise way to hedge short-term price fluctuations or gain exposure to silver around major economic news releases, as noted by the CME Group.
- Contract Type: These are American-style options, meaning they can be exercised on any business day before expiration.”