BTC’s performance if halving events are removed. ie halving is the lifeblood of BTC ‘value’ growth.
First I got to looking at the BTC oil ratio (both measured in dollars) – basically with every halving event in BTC it takes twice as much energy to produce the next one, so BTC stops being mined until the price of energy falls enough to make it profitable or BTC in dollars rises above the cost of energy production. A barrel of oil remains in constant dollars while a BTC that has been halved, costs twice as much (in oil dollars) to produce the next unit. BTC to the moon while oil remains relatively dormant. If halving is removed from the BTC program – it becomes a wet noodle (see bottom link below).
Before moving on with my argument – there is one deception that is being merged into public perception and that is – Electricity is an energy source. It is not, it takes a LOT of fossil fuel (mined and pumped from the earth) and a pinch of solar (sun) or wind (air) and a table spoon of hydro-electric (gravity) to produce.
See chart below of cost to produce 1 BTC vs. cost of energy (electricity) consumed to do so. There are divergent spikes in the value of BTC but generally they are directly tied to one another. I would dare say that the value of BTC is roughly equivalent to the cost of electric power.
https://energycostmodel.com/images/miningcost1.png
courtesy https://energycostmodel.com/ << reading this entire blog is worthwhile IMO.
Read this article also https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption
Goog/duck duck search “cost of electricity if crypto is removed”
So consider this – hypothetically let’s say the cost of electricity remained FLAT, what would the price of BTC do WITH halving – it would conceptually double the price of producing the next BTC unit, so no one is going to mine BTC until it become economical – in a FLAT electric cost environment there would never be incentive ever to mine one more unit so new BTC mining stops.
So to keep BTC alive (production of more units in circulation), either BTC falls in value to meet electric cost or electric cost rises to the incremental cost to produce a bitcoin << this is the reality of it since of course the cost of electricity is NOT flat and BTC mining seeks out the cheapest power sources possible, it eventually raises the cost of energy where it’s being mined. Globally it puts a rising floor under electricity prices and over time will cause global electricity prices to be singular and voila – units of BTC = units of Electricity on a global scale.
My suggestion – quit wasting energy on BTC and put it to productive use – build something, power something. Electricity is simply current – flow. if there’s not flow (energy transfer), there’s no ‘work’ being done. What produces FLOW – something other than electricity (see ‘deception’ note above).
Here is the punch line
https://crypto.com/en/bitcoin/halving-countdown
Basically halving creates artificial scarcity – remove halving events and what do you have – a flat chart. No growth, nothing organic, nothing being ‘produced’, ether, air, nada, nyet, ok maybe IDIOTS.
That’s my BTC rant.
WOW YOU PUT A LOT OF ENERGY INTO YOUR THESIS YYZ
I CAN’T SAY I UNDERSTAND IT ALL BUT IT SOUNDS BRILLIANT
🙂
Every time I start thinking “WHAT IS BITCOIN really”, esp. because I see some ‘smart’ people getting into it (kind of like getting the jab), I come to the same conclusion.
Now that I’m bullish on the prospects of OIL/Energy as a value play, and I know that BTC is directly tied to the cost of energy (at least in derivative form ‘electricity’), I’m trying to figure out does BTC wag the energy dog or visa versa (I think the latter is true). If energy costs soar (see my earlier OIL GOLD ratio argument), does that mean that BTC will also soar or CRASH, again I believe the latter. Many, like Ed Doud argue that crypto’s fate is directly tied to the tech sector – we may soon find out since BTC has recently broken some key levels and most insiders have exited the handful of tech stocks holding up the entire NASD.
Zero hedge tech CIRCLE JERK articles here.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-11-18/coreweave-cracking
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/ai-circle-jerk-rages-microsoft-nvidia-invest-15-billion-anthropic
All that has to happen to pop the FKNG bubble (AT WILL) is for the SEC to declare they are launching an investigation into these shenanigans.
Speaking of the SEC, since WHEN HAVE STORIES of them going after the BAD GUYS been in the mainstream financial news. What a JOKE.
It isn’t so much that Bitcoin is tied to the tech sector. It is that both are where risk is highest for speculative capital. When there is plenty of liquidity, risk capital flows to where the greatest possible speculative gains are likely. Now that the bubble(for both) has popped and liquidity is dropping so are the prices of both. Two different speculative assets that are highly correlated but not really connected.