Loading ...Michael Oliver and Gold
Lots of confusion on direction of Gold.
I am reading a lot opinions about Gold going higher or lower.
I rolled out of NASDAQ in 1999 and went 100% into the PM’s.
Watched my fortune grow to 2011.
Watched fortune disintegrate into 2015.
I am a long-term passive investor.
This run-up reminds me of the run from 2001 to 2011.
Gold started at $250 and went to $2000 that is an annual compounded growth rate of 20%.
Gold increased 8-fold.
If this pattern follows (which has repeatedly in history) Gold will approach $8000+ by 2025.
During the 2001-2011 time period, there was always someone calling for the end of AG and AU, and then WHAMO, it would jump up again. My buddies laughed at how stupid I was (well maybe from 2011 to 2015 Hihihi).
I am not professing to be a sage… I just see the same patterns in human behaviour and in the markets.
For those of you forecasting a major deflation impacting on AG, I wish you well, but you are going to be sorry.
The entire world is at risk if the USD fails and NO ONE wants to live through that (except maybe the Russians LOL).
I strongly recommend this Michael Oliver video.
Oliver is brilliant, analytical and fact based. I hope he is correct.
His thesis is we won’t see a significant crash in the markets.
They don’t occur so close to each other.
We will see a protracted sideways bear in stocks.
It will be step by step downward move so this means no major margin call .
This means trillions pumped in to create a softer landing and this means PM’s stocks up… way up.
And hopefully this time, I pull the ripcord by 2025.
Extremely logical and well presented, Sir Walnut. If you look at those previous bull markets for precious metals they didn’t end within this timeframe. Gold only started higher in Jan. 2016, it isn’t only going to last 4-5 years which if you think Aug. of last years high was the top. It wasn’t!
I’ll believe it when I see it. Gold and gold miners have been smashed vs general equities the last few months. While they might rebound soon, the LT damage has been done. Don’t expect any moonshot this year.
The author didn’t say anything about a moonshot this year just that this bull has a lot more to go and I agreed that a bull market in precious metals doesn’t only last 4-5 years, especially given the fundamentals with the whole world printing money. Who cares what gold stocks are doing relative to the stock market? He also correctly pointed out that if the stock bull market slows down or ends that is even better for mining stocks, less competition for investment dollars.
Uh, he expects $8000 gold “in a couple of years.” That kind of target necessitates a moonshot, starting now.
And as far as comparing the Dow to gold or the miners, I think it is highly relevant, unless you disregard opportunity cost. Personally, I would like to make the most money possible before the SHTF. I’m not talking about core bullion positions, I’m talking about speculating in metals and especially miners. If they can’t even outperform US equities, what the hell is the point?
Lot’s to comment about here, however I will just mention one. As far as a soft landing… never happens. How many times has one heard of this? How many times have I ever seen one? Zero.
Sir Plunger, Consider the stagflationary DOW market from Jan 1966 (8000 pts) to June 1982 (2200 pts).
That was a long and painful burn.
Not sure what you are referring to when you say Jan 1966 8,000 pnts? Dow peaked slightly over 1000 its in 1966. It then went into a 17 year secular bear market with a hard CRASH LANDING in Oct-Dec 1974 where the overall market crashed about 80%. Indexes crashed about 47% I recall. If Aug 1982 this nightmare secular bear market finally ended at 777 in the DOW (numbers from memory) Inflation adjusted that’s about a 80% decline from 1966. One memory I have from 1982 was a news flash in the fall of 1982 of 10% unemployment (back when these numbers were calculated accurately) blaming Reagan of course. This was indeed a HARD LANDING!
Sir Plunger, My bad regarding numbers. I am at work and I may have accidently pulled up the wrong numbers.
Apologies.
My point simply is the market stayed sideways to down from 1964 until 1982.
During that period, gold ownership was legalized and Gold reached its crescendo in 1980.
I don’t profess to know where we are in the cycle.
I do believe I know where we are going to be at the end of the cycle.
That is all I am saying.
Cheers
R
Agreed. Someone, at some point, is going to have to take a MASSIVE loss. The piper is always paid.
$250 trillion is the total amount of debt out there. Every nickel of that is currently being regarded by someone as an asset. But some very large fraction of that total is uncollectable. The political fight is ongoing, over who pays more, versus who pays much more, when that messed gets resolved. Everyone will pay something, somehow. Thus spoke Richard Russell. Even if gold goes to 10,000 “dollars” per ounce, it will still buy you just a nice suit. It won’t make you rich. Having gold will simply make you less poor.
Sir Pedro, I agree with you in principle. But I have believe the following:
We will experience high Inflation in Fiat and simultaneously, we will experience high Deflation in Gold.
What does that mean?
I have a chart that I assembled of real estate price of a home in Gold Ounces.
I cannot seem to figure out how to upload here.
What it shows is the number of ounces required to buy a home is on the decline since 2000 @ 750 ounces to 2020 @ 200 ounces.
If anyone is interested in seeing it, I can share via email.
Is there a way to post a chart from an excel here?
Send it to me and I will get it posted Sir Walnut
gmag@live.ca
Gentlemen, I am not predicting the AG/AU direction for next week or next Month.
I am sharing my MACRO outlook for this market.
I believe we have a rosy long term ride.
Interestingly there is a Gold paradox which seems to defy Supply and Demand theory.
As gold (or Silver) increases in price, so does demand.
I suppose we now call it FOMO, but when the direction does change, it will happen quickly and decisively.
Cheers
R
Well, if Oliver is serious about his “$8000 within a couple of years” call, then gold needs to make a serious move and soon.
Doesn’t have to move big and soon. Every Bull market, especially precious metals, goes parabolic in the terminal phase, usually the last one to two years. The largest percentage gains are made during that blowoff phase. Look at 2010-2011. If this has at least 2-3 years to run the blowoff stage is down the road.
Rosy ride? Ha, I certainly hope so, but have to tell you I don’t quite yet have the “feel”
I am so bullish I am in JDST SOXS SQQQ…