OIL PANICANS HAVE GIVEN UP TRYING
It has gotten so bad that experts are now giving up. CNN reported that Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy, has stopped guessing. “For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view,” Kaneva admitted two weeks ago in an advisory to investors. “We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”
In other words, we’ve been so badly wrong so many times that we’re just going to shut up now.
JEFF CHILDERS
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/let-the-mystery-be-friday-october?
If they’d simply look at the gold/oil ratio history, they’d understand direction modeling is unecessary. OIL IS CHEAP (war or no war), they should also be forcasting M2 vs OIL.
Without having gold valuation as a basis (still scorned in academia and professional circles), agreed – calls on oil are pointless, but not for the reasons they cite (geo-politics and week-end ‘announcement’ games).
Recent GOR peaks Q1 2020 (negative futures price spike low) >> 89+
Q1 2026 (oil is going back to 50 narrative) >> 78+
Historical ratio highs going back 80 years >> 32 (this includes the ‘energy crisis’ of the 70’s).
https://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart.