So, let me get this straight…
When the Fed is talking tough about interest rates, PM’s feel pressure and go down. Have to keep increasing to battle inflation….
So, all the talk is when rates look like they’ll stop increasing rates and get a more bullish slant on reducing rates (like a crappy job report), PM’s go up, but then change their minds.
I’m still a believer in macro forces here, but somebody make it make sense this week with gold and silver….phucking crazy. And they say there is no manipulation….I point to this week and say here’s you’re phucking proof. Rates probably up, gold down, no, scratch that, rates probably down or no hike, gold down. Baffled in the short term here.
Its not the Fed.
Its the bond vigilantes, around the world.
Mostly reacting to elevated oil prices.
You want to borrow from me, then pay me a rate that compensates for my expected higher costs for everything between now and when you pay me back. I want the real value back PLUS a risk premium.
The Fed cannot DO squat.
They don’t control long rates. The vigilantes do.
And they don’t even CONTROL the Fed Funds Rate. Just watch the 30 day, 90 day etc, and the Fed ‘sets’ the FFR by FOLLOWING market orders!
Daneric charts these chicken vs egg questions regularly.
Near term, market makers/managers may be trying to get gaps filled ahead of China’s Golden Week. GLD’s gap was filled, GOLD’s 2nd gap (down to $4,144) filled, I’d suspect GDX gaps may not fill, but if so another buying opportunity.
YYZ – where is Goods 1st gap?? Can it be filled too??