We’re moving into active rationing, emergency allocation, and crisis management across most countries outside the US.
The damage to the global economy at this stage is no longer theoretical, it’s structural.
Next comes second-order effects.
Fertilizers, chemicals, plastics, transport inputs, all tied directly to oil.
Agriculture gets hit with a lag…Lower yields. Higher input costs. Tightening food supply.
That’s when it stops being an energy crisis and turns into a full inflationary cycle with social consequences.

This doesn’t resolve quickly.

Even if flows normalize, inventories are depleted, supply chains are dislocated, and pricing psychology has shifted.
Once you trigger rationing behavior, hoarding, and government intervention, you’ve already crossed into a different regime.
We already heard that it would take 6 months+ to regain full output levels from the gulf. Escalation is putting almost all allies in check.

https://x.com/TheShortBear/status/2035080506430177366