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Two problems here.
Some of it is gas prices coming down, and that is now at the point where future capacity is now sliding as a result. So gas prices could ramp faster than they’ve slid looking ahead, because capacity rebuild takes longer.
And the other problem is that beneath the surface, labor market conditions are deteriorating notably.
Disinflation is coming due to tepid growth nearing contraction.
Labor Market ?
You mean the 250,000 lost Government Jobs and the Millions of lost Illegal Jobs….Not just the ones who have left but the ones who don’t come to work any more because they are afraid
In spite of that payrolls were up above expectations
There is obviously a recalibration right now
Illegal and Govt Jobs are way down…REAL American Jobs are way up
I am not an economist like you pedro so thats my take it or leave it take
You have to get more granular to see what’s going on.
Quit rates and other details that foreshadow.
Not rear view BLS bs.
Follow EGM.
I do not believe any government numbers, prices in stores go up daily, gasoline in Canada should be at least 20 cents lower per liter. It is almost the same price when world oil price was 10 dollars higher.
“This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed [MOM delta] rent/OER were zero for October. I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming October was zero. There is just no world in which this was a good idea, but here we are.”
https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2001651964128416022
OER = owner equivalent rent