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That last take down. LOL. Actually Plunger again has it right. Hopefully final capitulation.
He says up to two months to go. I’m in that camp, perhaps even a bit more.
I have technical (not price or cycle) targets that are still not being hit yet.
Oddly, I’m not seeing rising rates which I regularly correlate with PM bear action.
Bucky certainly has been resilient though. Is this McConnell sparring with Pelosi and Yellen?
Well I just posted over on Rambus that my interpretation of this is it’s the kick off of Phase III in the bear market which started in August 2020. As you know I have been unwaveringly preaching this for some time now. Once I figured out that it was indeed a bear market as opposed to merely a “correction” back in February the light came on in my head. The roadmap opened up. Not that all the timing could be predicted, but the general course ahead was revealed. We passed the POR back in July (my interpretation) which signaled Phase III was now fast approaching. I believe today (bank raid or not) signals the entry into Phase III. This is why I have consistently mentioned that one MUST respect the bear. Once in the final phase of a bear market it can be brutal. Today is the example.
The good news is if one followed the “rules” of identifying the primary trend (down) he is out of the sector and watching from the sidelines . He is playing in other sectors which are in bull markets: Uranium, coal, oil, etc. Our time will come, but patience is the central element of wisdom
Great call Plunger. Thanks!
I wonder if the dollar spike has anything to do with the largest real estate developer in China, Evergrande.
Evergrande has 200 billion USD in assets and 300 billion USD in debt.
They have defaulted on bond payments, and construction sites are halted account unable to pay contractors or suppliers.
Many are saying this is China’s Lehman Brothers moment.
Evergrande’s 300 Billion USD debt is many times larger than Lehman’s 600 million, and the debt is spread out to many banks, hedge funds, others. Contagion underway soon???
It has everything to do with it. We have been watching the top out parade pass before us all year long. Since Roman times Cicero noted that economic contractions begin at the periphery and head towards the center. Back in March with the rise in the USD it blew up Turkey, Argentina… others. Now with this renewed spike we see debt saturated Chinese entities now blowing up. The GSR is chronicling this. Next up is the center… er the USA. Give it a month. I think the top is in.
“It has everything to do with it.”
No doubt.
And in my way of looking at the world, its about tracking the CREDIT cycle.
Deflation occurs when credit begins to tighten.
EVG was likely the first of many dominoes.
Ras on another board commented on brewing problems in CRE, where occupancy remains down around 25% of pre covid.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/09/15/business-travel-conventions-office-occupancy-stuck-in-collapse-mode-its-been-so-long-people-forgot-what-the-old-normal-even-was/
As for the center and periphery, I might dissent here. China has been the center of the largest credit impulses since the GFC. They topped awhile back. Will they attempt another sticksave here, to paper over EVG? Not a few are looking for that.
Certainly surprises will start to be to the downside.