Loading ...Sam’s EW for gold
Haven’t shared any of his work in several years.
Now seems like a good time to do that.
We were in a long laborious upward corrective grind off the 2015 A wave lows.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnmBRwKCj
Instead of a nasty C wave down to sub $1000, he now expects a long sideways grind for what remains of Cycle IV.
Near term, we are likely now starting the most brutal part of this (C) leg of the longer 15 yr. correction.
Both he (unbeknownst to me as I was not notified of this 11 June update) and I thought we had one more upleg to this BMR (black 5 of black 2), but it was not to be.
I personally have no way to know if this more benign C wave count will be right, or if the zig zag comes to pass.
I suspect it went out the window with all the Fed balance sheet expansion last spring.
But now there’s even more leverage to unwind, so that cuts both ways.
What makes me skeptical of this count is the five legged triangle C wave he has us in.
Its well known in EW circles that triangles can only appear as B waves and 4th waves.
Meaning the totality of a B wave or 4th wave.
So I’ll be keeping an eye out for a tweak to this count at some point.
Open to suggestions.
And here I thought the sideways action over the last year was painful!
That would be an odd ending to our 10 year cup and handle in gold – especially if inflation kicks in. But I guess anything is possible.
“especially if inflation kicks in”
First, I don’t buy narratives to support my trading.
Second. To me inflation is dollar credit creation, not the price of eggs.
Show me a chart of total worldwide debt (public, corporate, and household), and I will label that inflation. (ie, currency debasement)
IMO, the idea of “CPI inflation” was designed to confuse a dimwitted public.
If you want an outlook for gold, ask what is likely with real interest rates going forward?
Will central banks continue to lag “behind the curve” on rates when you see ALL SORTS OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES wreaking havoc all around us from their “protect the banks at all costs” policies? Ie, cheap credit so Blackrock will be your landlord and everybody else’s? How will that play come next election? They have boxed themselves into a corner. Good luck to all of us!