Goldtent TA Paradise

Another, Less Happy Breakout In The US

1. kemmrich says:

   July 10, 2020 - 6:36 am at 6:36 am

   I posted a chart on covid hospitalizations. Deaths lag hospitalizations, so we will see how this turns out. I do believe we have blown it in the USA. All we had to do was avoid the 3 C’s: closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings. This simple step helped in Japan because they were already familiar with the term 3 C’s from quality teachings.

   But we turned it into a political battle where if you wear a mask you are voting for Biden, if you don’t wear a mask, you are pro-Trump. How did we let politics co-opt health and science? I wonder what the people who lived through the great depression and WWII would think of us now.

   • Northstar says:

     July 10, 2020 - 6:40 am at 6:40 am

     It’s all very sad Kemmrich and common sense seems to have gone out of the window…

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     July 10, 2020 - 7:05 am at 7:05 am

     They would think We are Pussies

     They would say suck it up you weenies

     They would say 100s of millions lost their lives or had their lives destroyed in that war and you pathetic people are agonizing over half a million mostly almost spent lives ?

     They would say. You are Pathetic.

     sheesh

2. Fullgoldcrown says:

   July 10, 2020 - 6:42 am at 6:42 am

   MSM is Thrilled at this !

   They have been licking their collective Chops and waiting for an uptick in deaths in the USA

   It supports their narrative.

   And now so do you.

   Here is mine

   So far in the world this year 31,000,000 deaths

   So far 560,000 are “said” to have been from covid ( some say “with” covid is more like it )

   That’s 1.8%

   You have to admit thats a LOT of excitement over something as insignificant as 1.8% of the BIG PICTURE.

   One could be forgiven if one thought it were 98% based on all the hype !

   The number of deaths WITH covid is a rounding error in the grand scheme .

   I know a Lot of people who have died this year and not one with covid.

   • Northstar says:

     July 10, 2020 - 7:05 am at 7:05 am

     I think you mis-understand me Fully. When I said common sense has gone out of the window, I meant we are taking things too far in many respects, with the cure being worse than the disease in many countries. The feeling is different here in the UK though, with most of us knowing people who had a bad time with Covid and in my case 2 dead relatives and one extremely ill after 3 months, with psychological/brain complications. It should be about protecting the vulnerable and allowing the rest of us to get on with our lives, accepting the risk (which is very low, unless we pass it on to someone older/vulnerable).

     • Fullgoldcrown says:

       July 10, 2020 - 8:31 am at 8:31 am

       Well your comment was to kemmrich so I assumed you meant his kind of common sense which is to not comment on anything that looks like good science with an alternative view but attack anything deemed “bad science”.

       I agree with you assessment …LOW risk..On with Life….Damage Control …Onward Pilgrims

3. Fullgoldcrown says:

   July 10, 2020 - 7:02 am at 7:02 am

   Another fact I just found regarding UK and Common Sense

   In the 1969 Virus Pandemic 30,000 died in the UK…Population 55 Million

   .05% of the population died from the virus

   …………………..

   In the 2020 Virus Pandemic 44,000 died ( so far) in the UK…Population 68 Million

   .06 of the population died from the virus

   Far as I can tell in 1969 nobody lost their jobs and lives because of the response to the virus

   I leave it to you to tally how many jobs and lives have been lost AND will be lost because of the response to the virus

   • Northstar says:

     July 10, 2020 - 7:08 am at 7:08 am

     Fully – In 1969 there was no lockdown, so those figures are not equivalent to tiodays virus – they are equivalent to what the death toll WOULD HAVE BEEN if we had done nothing (like 1969). Without bringing the r number back below 1, estimates range from 250,000 to 1 million dead.

     • Fullgoldcrown says:

       July 10, 2020 - 8:16 am at 8:16 am

       Estimates ?

       Like Nial Ferguson’s Estimates ?

       Hundreds of millions of deaths projected ?

       You mean those estimates ?

       Come on NS…You speak of common sense ?

       Sweden Japan Belarus South Dakota Most of Africa…never locked down and the appocalypse didn’t happen

       I submit the lockdown made this worse not better…Italy Spain UK NY NJ

       Common Sense ?

       Diamond Princess Laboratory

       100% of the population tested

       17% positive 83% negative after over a month of all living together in a small space with airducts all connected in the cabins

       6 deaths ( this in a decidedly older population than in the real world )

       .01% death rate = flu !!!

       Common Sense !

       Anything else ?

       • Northstar says:

         July 10, 2020 - 10:01 am at 10:01 am

         I’m referring to the modelling we did here. It’s the same model that suggested in a best case we might be able to keep Covid-19 deaths below 20,000 we’re more than double that, in the range it suggested as more likely. I have no reason to doubt the numbers it suggested would transpire if the r number stayed at 3 for a few more weeks.

4. Karl says:

   July 10, 2020 - 7:05 am at 7:05 am

   I can see any number of sound, reasonable arguments (I don’t mean the word in the sense of shallow debating points) from different perspectives. It is unclear what definitions and the underlying data are and how they are used, how homogeneous the data are etc etc.

   We will see eventually, maybe.

   One thing that drives me nuts about this chart — and about most TA for that matter — is that even basic statistical analysis is not used such as least square analysis but instead just straight line drawing. No regression analysis. No confidence intervals or such things. Nothing like that. (It does very much look as though there is a “breakout” as they say in TA land though.) One does not have the numbers at hand, just the pictures, so one has to make do in an inferior fashion, I suppose.

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     July 10, 2020 - 8:35 am at 8:35 am

     You also have to ask…what are they counting ?

     Deaths with covid ( and NO symptoms ) are included !!