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The negative divergence in the $SPX RSI from late February/early March until now is telling.
Telling what?
Thanks Plunger. Would really appreciate a heads up when you think we might be close to the bottom. I exited at GDX $25 yesterday. I’m watching the technical indicators very carefully here.
Bottom in what?
PM sector looking for bottom 1-3 months from now
Sorry. Yes Plunger, I should’ve said. I’m just re-reading Ray Dalios ‘Big Debt Crises’ at the moment. It’ll surely take the general stock market a very long time to recover, taking into account the huge scope of financial losses unfolding ?
If PMs bottoms in 1-3 months, are you expecting the mining indices to hold above their recent lows or make new lows ? Tricky to know for sure I guess.
NS,
If you exited GDX at $25 yesterday, what was your intention with your GDX post early this morning, “All Aboard The Arc (Again)”, and saying “I would suggest holding tight”?
You suggested Holding Tight??? Right after you just sold???
What kind of game are you playing here???
Apologies Alfa, and quite right to pick me up on that. I don’t try to tell other people when to exit/enter the market because we all have different ‘timelines’, with some being short term traders who jump in and out on a daily or weekly basis. I’m a long term investor, who rarely exits/enters the market (especially as I believe we’re in a long term bull market that started in early 2016). So what I was trying to say, is that if you didn’t sell at that spike low, and held on for the rebound back up – well done. I can see exactly what you mean – it sounded inconsistent. To be clear – I firmly believe 2016 was the bear market bottom for gold prices. Mining stocks are selling off with the general market, but that was an advantage I couldn’t pass up on (to get out, and then back in at a lower price). For anyone who is holding steady, there is (in my view) nothing to worry about because the miners will be going much higher. Hope that’s clearer.
Telling us that, even as price continues to make new lows, the momentum of this move down is waning and a move up is probable very soon.
A move up in price that is. I see the same divergence on the daily chart.
Then put in your TQQQ order
I used all my dry powder on gold miners and won’t have more dry powder until next month. Hopefully they’re still cheap by then.
I don’t agree, completely.
We are due a reflex bounce, but it will get sold.
The bounce could take weeks, mind you.
But I agree with Burt on 1-3 months for PMs, and think the same for equities.
Why? My momentum readings at monthly degree are OFF THE CHARTS, so positive divergences are higher degree are not in sight.
Where folks get nailed, is from looking ONLY at daily or ONLY at weekly OR even ONLY at both.
AND I WILL ADD, I’M CONCERNED THAT EVEN MONTHLY CHARTS may be too low a degree to see the trend pressures.
General SM remains in 2-3 year bear market
Gold stocks bottom in 1-3 months and resume PBC bull market
Silver stocks avoid for now
That’s my present thinking. but incredible wild
In our little EW world, the equities bear cycle began in Sept/Oct 2018, so yes to 2-3 yr bear.
A down to Dec 2018, then B up and now C down to finish the equities down cycle.
In EW, B waves can make new highs within a bear cycle. Odd birds, but with (or without) CB activity, its allowed.
That’s the bullish read, and much more bearish reads are out there for sure.
GSC top, with a roughly 20 year GSC IV wave of sideways to down.
I like EW just never been successful with it.
I do follow Prechter
No one believed what EW guys were saying or Dow Theory was saying
Prechter’s EWI group are not terribly well respected. (Hochberg & Co.)
Perhaps because they are always so “definitive”. There are always several paths forward.
Jason Haver at PretzelCharts is the guy to track. If you have time, see his Sunday post, Monday and today’s (Tuesday dated). Sunday’s is especially good.
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/2020/03/sunday-thoughts-coronavirus-is-not.html (Sun)
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/2020/03/indu-and-spx-historic-call-in-historic.html (Tues)
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/2020/03/spx-and-indu-preferred-target-captured.html (Mon)
Oil price is absurd. We’ll be filling up our tanks for $0.99 a gallon if this keeps up. It’ll feel like when I was back in high school.
From a fundamental standpoint alone, it’s very easy to see why general stocks are going to wiped out for years. Profits evaporating, with all trade and business activity in front of their eyes now.