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Great article Jordan, this is what I have been thinking also. Some have the USD targeting 105, 115, even 125+ eventually. Assuming inflation remained flat, I would think the FED would not allow such a run in the USD because it would spell widescale deflation. Any thoughts about this or are you only interested in real rates? What do you find to be the best measurement of inflation? Thank you.
That scenario would lead to rate cuts and lower real rates, hence Gold bullish. The rate cut is the catalyst for lower real rates.
Inflation in the market sense is commodity prices. So look at commodities (ex G&S). Commodities outperforming Gold is not good but if they perform well enough, it raises inflation expectations and eventually Gold follows.
Any reason to look at TIPS?
Maybe a better question, if commodity prices are going down (or set to go down) based on chartology, when interest rates are cut to the lower bound (or negative), then do real rates drive gold prices anymore? From a lot I have read, commodities are set to tank and the only place for rates to go are lower bound (or negative).
I doubt commodities are going to tank anytime soon given how cheap they are already and given that a reflationary move could be underway.
With respect to charting the CRB, it changed its weighting in 05-06 from an equal weighted basket to an energy dominated basket.
The weightings are total shit now and you cant draw any conclusions from the CRB index. The old index was $CCI on stock charts but they got rid of it.
Thank Jordan.