For instance, if the global supply shortfall were 14% then even with the current demand elasticity, oil should be trading closer to $140/bbl. If the demand elasticity was 0.15 rather than 0.2, the implied oil price would be $208/bbl, and if the demand elasticity was 0.1 prices would approach $372/bbl.

Drawing down crude inventories at a record pace, with SPR releases doing the heavy lifting to cushion the Gulf supply shock, only delays the move higher in crude oil prices. Once those buffers are depleted, oil risks being violently repriced higher.

If Hormuz does not reopen soon, the market will eventually force demand destruction through much higher prices.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/ubs-warns-scary-oil-price-scenarios-once-inventory-buffers-run-dry