1– Geopolitics, not monetary theory, is driving gold’s return to reserves. The shift away from a unipolar U.S.-led system is reintroducing gold as a strategic asset.

“We argue that the share of gold in central bank reserves is not driven by the global monetary system, but by the global geopolitical environment.”

2- The reserve baton is shifting from dollars to gold, led by emerging markets. USD share has declined materially while gold has rapidly reclaimed ground.

“The dollar’s losses as a share of central bank reserves have not gone to other fiat currencies, but to gold.”

3- Emerging markets are the marginal buyer, with significant room to scale. Current gold allocations in EM remain far below historical norms, implying continued accumulation.

“EM central banks have been actively buying gold… there could be a long way to go in the trend.”

4- A 40% gold reserve regime implies materially higher prices. Even under declining FX reserves, structural allocation shifts support a path toward ~$8,000 gold.

“Gold prices could still rise to $8000 over the next five years, if EM countries all target a 40% gold share.”

EXEC SUM: Deutsche Bank argues a “return of history” is driving central banks, led by emerging markets, to shift reserves from dollars to gold amid rising geopolitical fragmentation. With gold’s share targeting ~40% of reserves, sustained official buying could push prices toward $8,000 within five years, even under declining FX reserve scenarios.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2026-04-29/db-8000-gold-and-40-gold-reserves