Response to post on J. Powell’s BTC comments (worth a separate one I figure).
“BTC is not a competitor for the USD, but a competitor for GOLD”.
If that’s even REMOTELY TRUE, why are both up HUGE in USD terms and ALL OTHER world currencies since 2012?
BTC is basically monetized electric energy with features such as 1) only being transacted through electronic channel/exchange, 2) can be turned on/off (confiscated) at will by those controlling the code or exchange, 3) has a ledger record for any party who controls the code (including govt’s), 4) could be used to selectively manage behavior at the individual citizen/account level, 5) it’s ‘finite’ characteristic might also be digitally managed (not at this time but when it becomes necessary).
Another question for you Jerome, are global central banks stocking up on Bitcoin or GOLD?
Bitcoin is monetized electric energy sold to the public as ‘having value’ but in reality ONLY because BTC costs money (in electricity cost) to mine. If mining stops, halving stops and what is BTC’s free float notional value (caveat – without gov’t decree)?
( to see the parallels between the energy cost of BTC vs value of BTC, see my earlier post https://goldtadise.com/?p=681116 )
Consider this:
1) It presently takes 854,400 kilowatt hours (KWH) of electricity to mine a single BTC
https://www.compareforexbrokers.com/us/bitcoin-mining/
2) 1 KWH = 3,412 BTU
3) 1 barrel of Crude Oil = 5,800,640.8 BTUs
https://www.answers.com/physics/How_many_BTU_are_in_a_barrel_of_crude_oil
4) 1 barrel Crude = 1,700.07 KWH’s of electricity (indexed @ BTU’s 5,800,640.8/3,412)
5) It takes 502.6 barrels of Crude energy to create a single BTC (indexed @ KWH’s 854,400/1,700.07).
Nowhere in this calculation so far involves DOLLARS – it’s simple energy equivalency.
Taking WTI crude as “fairly priced” at $58, BTC should only be worth about $29,150.80 ($58*502.6 bbl) in terms of energy equivalency measured in dollars (about 1/3’d its current ‘value’)
If BTC is “fairly priced” at $86,500, 1 bbl WTI crude energy equivalent should be $172.105 ($86,500/502.6 bbl)
So the question is, is BTC overpriced or is WTI under priced and also which best represents the true cost of energy? And, if they meet in the middle, in which do you want to be positioned?
Charts here show that OIL is still the king of global energy supply.
Good stuff. BTC is over valued and oil is not the buy that many think. It will bounce around but not going substantially higher vs it’s historic inflation adjusted highs.
Thanks CM. That’s part of the point of my thesis – current oil price is NO WHERE NEAR it’s inflation adjusted highs – top chart (link below) shows what $20 oil in 1946 would be if it were at the ‘inflation adjusted highs’. Also, if oil were to hit the USD’s (currency) ‘inflation adjusted HIGH, it would be around $300 (only matched/exceeded a couple times – I’m not expecting it, but a possibility). The room for upside in oil from here is multiples of the probability of further downside. If oil does nothing while gold continues it’s rise, I’m getting 4% div (producers/service co’s) for sitting and the downside floor is rising over time. Not get-rich-quick but a solid bet with dramatic upside potential before the second inflation phase is over (gold is not done).
https://goldtadise.com/?p=678694
1:56 mark for you
https://youtu.be/LAoQyya0HzE?t=7013
Excellent work YYZ
Thats a mouthful of energy 🙂
The Oil Price thingy is not apples to apples though IMO
In 1946 the capacity for Production was no where near what it is today , Nor were the discovered reserves
Turns out there is unlimited supply apparently ( No Peak Oil)
With Green Dying and Trump’s drill baby drill the world is awash in oil
Middle East war can change the price fast
Great post!
I wonder what the price for 1 BTC will be when quantum computing becomes more main stream?
Me thinks bye bye BTC !
Back side of an envelope here looks to me that it takes about 250Bbl oil to mine 1 Oz of gold.
Let’s change that. Average AISC per 1 Oz of gold about $1500. Common claim that 40% of input costs per ounce is the cost of energy (oil). Therefore $1,500X40%=$600.00 $600/$58=10 Bbls per Ounce AU
Wow. So on an energy cost basis BTC costs about 502/10=50X. BTC consumes 50X times the energy to produce than an equal amount of gold
Dollar to dollar that would be to produce $86,000 of gold takes about 209 Bbls of oil so the ratio at todays price is 2.4X energy to produce equivalent amount of BTC