Goldtent TA Paradise

Silvercorp Metals… topping?

1. Noman says:

   July 24, 2020 - 2:46 pm at 2:46 pm

   Consider throwing away all your indicators. I have. There are always a hundred reasons to sell. The DSI is overbought. The BPGDM is at max. My mechanical gave a sell and I am ignoring it. I have seen the MACD in double digits. It’s all relative.

2. Noman says:

   July 24, 2020 - 3:14 pm at 3:14 pm

   Everyone is top calling. I just read the latest missive from Adam Hamilton, hi adam! He is doing it too. I am dooommmed.

3. Noman says:

   July 24, 2020 - 3:16 pm at 3:16 pm

   I am commenting on letter writers on the internet. Not this site!

4. Karl says:

   July 24, 2020 - 3:20 pm at 3:20 pm

   First, as far as silver goes, I assume any ideas I have are wrong and I just have some exposure to some companies. I am suspicious short term and think it goes way way way up in US$ longer term and maybe not long term. I just throw up my hands. Gold pricing will tend to be less capricious so I will pretend to have a few clues about it.

   Second, my main comment is on Noman’s thought of throwing away all indicators. Decades ago Jack Schwager was featured in Barron’s noting that the most potent indicator can be the failed indicator. (There was an example of a recent failed head-and-shoulders so he reversed the bet and did well.)

   So many indicators are good for, say, all but the 2 standard deviation tail, or 99 percentile+ tail. When they are wrong, things go way the other way from what the indicator would suggest. What has been really difficult about this market is that it has been on the edge so much in various respects. It is on the edge of indicators. Different indicators point different ways. It is driving me nuts.

   • Noman says:

     July 24, 2020 - 3:52 pm at 3:52 pm

     The only thing working for me are simple charts. No indicators. Basic channels. Trend lines.

     • Karl says:

       July 24, 2020 - 4:03 pm at 4:03 pm

       You sound like me except perhaps more so.

       I like moving averages and Bollinger bands. I often glance at other things (stochastic, OBV, MACD) but often to ignore them.

       I almost always draw channels and resistance and support lines only with my eyes.

       Sometimes I like going through dozens of charts with nothing. I spent so much time doing so much with the data long ago. Now I just hope my unconscious kicks in with pattern recognition.

       • Noman says:

         July 24, 2020 - 6:24 pm at 6:24 pm

         I do the same. Rarely draw the lines. See them in my head. Do not want to restrict association.

5. Plunger says:

   July 24, 2020 - 3:22 pm at 3:22 pm

   There is an awful lot of top calling, but yesterday I sold my SVM all 50,000 shares. I am nervous I am going to be a sideliner. But it met my price objective and my time projection so I sold… don’t want to be a pig. Then I took profits and shorted the IWM yesterday around 149. Wish me luck

   https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=8&id=p00994716007&listNum=43&a=788765496

   • Noman says:

     July 24, 2020 - 3:46 pm at 3:46 pm

     Thank you for posting your trade. I’m too scared to short the stock market. I keep thinking of all that money the Treasury got from the Cares Act and since they report to the President I assume he is telling them to buy buy buy. McNuchin, do you like your job? Do you want to keep it? How many people get the opportunity? Would your wife like you as much if I fired you??

6. Silverhawk says:

   July 24, 2020 - 3:23 pm at 3:23 pm

   Others are looking primed to run, could always rotate into others. AXU, USAS, SILV BCEKF pulled back & you could add here. AUY, GOLD, KL on the gold side are ready to go?

   • Karl says:

     July 24, 2020 - 4:05 pm at 4:05 pm

     I’m too dizzy to rotate much.

7. Karl says:

   July 24, 2020 - 4:48 pm at 4:48 pm

   Something like calling tops works in many cases when based on the usual methodologies. When there is a firm trend that is different, the one out of 100, it sometimes goes a long distance the “wrong” way, opposite to what is predicted. That is one of the problems with being oscillators’ blinded slave. It helps to know what is going on in the world. It helps to think. It helps to look at major trends and take seriously the What Ifs.

   It also helps to sell so as to have only partial positions especially so as to have nice cash for bill payment.

   Risk management is often among the best indicators — for example, if trend seems unusually strong up yet the beloved squiggly lines and rules say overbought, sell some and if you are overextended sell a lot. If you are on margin and no brighter than I sell enough not to use margin and never use it again. My opinion, anyway.

   I personally think calling tops is really stupid unless one adds “maybe.” Calling bottoms is if anything worse, but that’s for another time.

8. Noman says:

   July 24, 2020 - 6:26 pm at 6:26 pm

   My mentor got out of the 1929 run in August 29 not because he called nearly the top but he needed the money.

9. Noman says:

   July 24, 2020 - 6:27 pm at 6:27 pm

   I was 21 and he was in his 90’s.

10. Noman says:

    July 24, 2020 - 6:30 pm at 6:30 pm

    He had 66 years of institutional memory. Combining mine with his I have 110 years of institutional memory.