Goldtent TA Paradise

Plunger –

1. Plunger says:

   April 4, 2020 - 2:47 pm at 2:47 pm

   The slowdown (collapse actually) IS the PBC. It actually began with eh 2008/9 GFC but CBs of the world stepped in and artificially inflated the collapsing bubble thus deferring it for another 11 years. It has now reasserted itself in much more virulent fashion.

   This renewed crisis actually began back in September and the FED was forced to come in with another attempt to douse the symptoms with its repo program. They of course never explained what was really going on, beyond their statments of “providing liquidity to markets”. Informed banks and others began to recognize what was going on and in December began to clean out commercial sized gold physical stocks out of the system. (source: Josh Crumb interview Macro watch this week) So the fuse has been burning for 6-7 months now. the virus has simply been the accelerant.

   But we are now in the early stages of a depression. What follows the everything bubble is the everything contraction. Most are of course in full denial. The company I work for has now undergone a 95% drop in revenues… simply unbelievable. Stock buybacks have left corp America with hollowed out balance sheets with no remaining resilience to deal with the crisis. Wholesale bankruptcy looms. Millions whose income relied on tips and services are now getting Zero income and have no savings. The governments check of $2,ooo will simply be vaporized as soon as it arrives. Within months they will be on the street begging. Civil disruption looms. With an unemployment rate of 20-25% (or more) and -25% GDP the markets could eventually discount this with an 80% decline.

   Brother can you spare a dime…. Have a nice day.

2. KenS says:

   April 4, 2020 - 3:05 pm at 3:05 pm

   Wow! That was what I was wondering after reading your series. Thanks so much for your insights!

3. Northstar says:

   April 4, 2020 - 3:29 pm at 3:29 pm

   This realisation is coming to everyone in coming weeks and months. ‘V’ shaped recovery? Not a hope in hell.

4. Plunger says:

   April 4, 2020 - 3:38 pm at 3:38 pm

   This is an incredibly exciting time. Sure millions will suffer and will be destroyed, that’s very sad, but the reality is you just can’t warn people. They absolutely will refuse to step to the sidelines when being pumped by Wall Street and the White House… daily. (not a Trump basher, just stating the facts) But we now have to deal with the realities. The reality is crisis brings opportunity. Some of life’s greatest opportunities come from the point of despair. One could see this coming for years. I know I did. But it was always a question of timing. That was the hardest part. 10 years ago I could have never dreamed and I know of no one who could see the bounce lasting 11 years. Just incredible what money printing was able to do..

   But it is now over… It’s not coming back, the world has changed. Time toplay defense and figure out the opportunities. One of the opportunities will be a bull market in the gold producers, but the question is how do we get to there? My view is not yet. It may take a year to get the fundamental cash flows to the gold producers. It took 2-3 years in the previous episode during the 1930’s. If you take the plunge into the sector now you could ride through a 30% drawdown to get there. That’s the hard part. In my way of thinking there are many great speculative opportunities before the bull takes off and there is that opportunity cost thingy.

   Good luck out there, you will need it. Time to focus

5. Aurum Maximus says:

   April 4, 2020 - 5:26 pm at 5:26 pm

   Thanks plunger!