Gold Retrace
Retest ?
50% Retrace to 1370 ?
Also Just noticed the weekly TSI situation
It just got higher than ever !
These kinds of peaks always lead to significant drops lasting a while !
Looks like another lump of coal for Goldbugs at Christmas
sheesh
Never say never and never say always. We don’t know, or at least I know that I don’t know.
And, continuing to be perverse and argumentative, I’d like to add that a drop to ~1370-1400, which would not surprise me (any more than a move upwards) would be a delightful Christmas present. It would be a great opportunity to buy some nice stuff at bargain prices — possibly extra extra low because of tax loss selling. If only I could count on it!
(Of course, I could be wrong and the price could keep going down below 1370, but I would guess not. Looks like relatively good support.)
The retrace to 1350 is happening- all significant out breaks will have a backrest and it’s needed for
A healthy bull market – I personally think these charts and banner headings serve nothing more than to stir mindless conversation – daily posts serve no purpose and daily update of charts just adds noise in my honest opinion – sentiment was too high and we had a really good run – at this point patience is required –
Todamoon, I’ve held an opinion similar to yours about daily updating of charts, and I still tend to have an eye-rolling type of reaction when I see them.
However I’m starting to get shaken from my old opinions.
For one thing, seeing the frequent updates may tend to prevent me from getting lulled into holding a bad position too long.
I am starting to see the advantages of short-term trading except for a very few conservative core positions.
I am starting to realize that my standard way of looking at things was tied to the old commission schedules of the old-time brokers. With commissions as low as zero, it’s a different world. Moreover, as a US citizen I am learning about tax law that may prevent long-term capital gain treatment of broad classes of non-US stocks (PFICs), and therefore have even less reason for buy-and-hold. I also have begun contemplating more and more the concept of sunk cost fallacy. For all these reasons I am beginning to see why people might want to see daily charts–or hourly charts for that matter–to go in and out of the markets. I may be undergoing a partial conversion. (To be sure the accountant’s bills may become horrendous.)
In summary, for years I have been reacting negatively to making a big deal about things on daily charts, perhaps much more negatively than you. However I may be changing because my strategy may be changing.
The charts that fully has posted are merely stir dialogue and raise up people’s emotions – if you notice his posts are either gold going up or gold going down –
This post is nothing new – so my question is what is the purpose of this post given that it was published by rambus a long time ago –
Fully – feel free to let me know the purpose of this post and the behaviour motivating it ??
The purpose of this post is that I see a drop to the breakout point 1370ish.
Maybe this helps clarify what is going on and why for some readers not named toothemoon.
Gold had a hell of a time breaking out and then when it did it went directly to the exact resistance point we all saw 1550. Perfect chartology.
Of course that’s exciting and we look for clues that the rally will continue and of course it Feels good to do so !
After a day like today it is obvious Gold will not just power thru this long term resistance so i look at a chart and I see There is a very high TSI and last 3 times there was a very high TSI on the weekly we had protracted and painful drops.
I disagree that my charts are stir dialogue. I posted a chart this morning of gold on the precipice punctuated with an analogy ( roller coaster)
about 20 minuets later the chart proved prophetic,
I closed all my positions and maybe just maybe someone else looked at that chart and did likewise.
What did YOU do ?
Up until that point Gold was holding the line.
Every day we can find gems of wisdom in the charts.
If you don’t like charts what the hell are you doing here ?
Seriously
This comment is Nuckin Futz to post at a place called TA Paradise !
sheesh
I was out of gold in September – and I’m waiting till late December
I liquidated today as well Fully…..IMO the days of Buy & Hold died a very very long time ago. The POTUS uses Twitter now ffs and some traders are still looking up quotes in the newspaper probably lol…….it’s a competitive world if you want to compete (And trading is a competition imo) then get in the game. Or just be a Bag Holder your choice?
“These kinds of peaks always lead to significant drops lasting a while !”
But .. but … but “indicators schmindicators”
When I raised points JUST LIKE THIS two months ago … and with this very outlook, you dissed the value of indicators. Remember?
Touche
But Not All indicators are created equal
When you see something like this on a weekly chart …it is significant.
PS…for a short term trader 2 months ago doesn’t count.
2 months ago there were still upward pointing posibilities that for a short term trader were worth a shot
Two months ago, I called a major top based on MONTHLY indicators.
POINTING DOWN FROM EXTREMES. Go back to those remarks if you don’t recall.
At the time, I drew comparisons to the April and June momentum peaks in 2016, and left open the door to a sharp drop then one higher high.
But I said the peaks were comparable to those extremes.
Not weeklies but monthlies.
Got it pedro
You were right. great call
But again …I am trading short term .
So monthly charts are not what IU look at on a daily basis
Hear Hear to red Label’s comment above
Exactly how I feel.
Nothings a guarantee … TSI on WEEKLY is slightly above average since 2002, I agree, but on monthly since 2002 it is AVERAGE, yes only at the MEAN. It can actually go up 2x from here and meet the 2008 monthly high!
Gold/Silver have been sniffing out something big since the end of last year. Although they are due a rest and retrace, it’s likely they continue on their path at some point (and not sub $1000 like some EW guys are calling for).
At least, that’s what I’m expecting with an economy with screws popping out everywhere. Although one could argue the corruption and deceitfulness of the trade propaganda and central banks can keep this going longer than expected. All things come to an end. The free market will win in the end.
Here is my take on this TSI… cool stuff! https://goldtadise.com/?p=451434
There’s no Reply Button appending this post, so its down here
“Fullgoldcrown
November 8, 2019 – 8:41 am at 8:41 am
Got it pedro
You were right. great call
But again …I am trading short term .
So monthly charts are not what I look at on a daily basis”
I’m trading on ‘short term’ also, almost always in Kamikazee trades.
But I knew that the winds had shifted, and I traded only with the Prevailing Trend.
That’s the reason my system is driven by the higher timeframes.